Bitcoin Bulls’ Favorite Stock-to-Flow Model is Flawed ...

SQ

I like Square as a company and see a lot of people are bullish about it. However, a few things stop me from investing. Be interested to hear thoughts but at the moment I am a Square bear.
Management
Jack Dorsey is a visionary. I don’t think this is controversial. However, his track record at Twitter is worrying for shareholders. Be it daily active user growth, ambition with acquisitions but ultimately failure to monetise a fantastic platform where you have big corporations, celebrities and even the President reaching out to 200m daily active users for free. With Square, the closed loop business model of businesses and consumers is again a fantastic concept that could break the power of Visa/Mastercard. Execution remains to be seen, of course.
Competition
Square operate in a highly competitive field for consumers and businesses. Let’s take consumers based on Square’s fast-growing Cash App. It offers things a normal bank does like deposits, ATM access, money transfer. If it becomes a fully-fledged bank offering loans, credit; it is competing against the likes of big incumbents (e.g. JP Morgan, Bank of America). Granted they’re dinosaur firms but they already have a huge customer base that are older and, therefore, have more money and deposits. This means it is much easier for them to monetise their customers resulting in high ARPU. Why would these lucrative customers, en-masse, want to uproot their finances to Square when their existing providers will be providing the same service by copying Square, as JP Morgan have done this week? Link
For businesses, Square’s provides software offering (invoicing, PoS, online store) but face strong competition from the likes of Shopify who are taking a fully integrated service approach to SMEs which allows them to take their business online but also manage all their backend processes, including payments. This is a highly convenient service for entrepreneurs. Shopify already has 6% share of the online retail market. Square also provides hardware products which make it easy for SMEs, in particular, to take payments. However, there is evidence that retail is facing a more permanent shift in the US vs. the rest of the world with 60% less footfall today than a year ago Link. 58% of Square’s GPV is from food/drink, retail and professional services. Square may have good market share but it is a shrinking industry.
And as a final piece, competitors in both spaces are generally in very healthy financial shape: Paypal, Shopify, Global Payments, Western Union and big banks are well-capitalised.
Valuation
Perhaps you can get over the above with the fact that Square has strong network effects and are able to win customers cheaply. However, in my opinion, Square is priced for perfection. Simply looking at a price/sales metric, it is trading 13x LTM. This is high but maybe relatively reasonable for a fast-growing business. However, 25% of Square’s revenue is accounted by Bitcoin “revenue”. This brings little value to Square (2% gross profit) and even Square themselves discount this revenue in their KPIs because it is “out of their control and not reflective of Square’s performance”.
Now onto profits. It is not fair to be too hard on Square’s profitability. After all, it is in high growth phase and its marketing costs were its highest opex line item at roughly 35% for YTD. However, a cursory look at it is Enterprise Value / EBITDA (forward look to Dec2020), it is 242x. If we give credit for Square’s business plan for a further two years, today’s Enterprise Value over broker consensus forecast EBITDA for 2022, it is still a heady 77x. This is when Square is supposed to have EBITDA of $1bn which is three times more than it is forecast for Dec 2020. Priced to perfection.
If you compare it to Paypal, it is trading at 39x and 27x EV / EBITDA for Dec 2020 and 2022.
Conclusion
Square has formidable backers like Ark Invest. I am also not a great believer in “dumb retail” overvaluing a stock for a prolonged period of time. But for reasons above, I am cautious with Square and yet it keeps climbing so please tell me what I am missing…
submitted by dellywally to stocks [link] [comments]

Unpopular opinion - the economy has to become dynamic in order for it to have any longevity (and other musings on the progression)

Ain't no one gonna read this but here it goes!
The issue of progression has recently been gaining some traction in the community with Klean and DeadlySlob covering this topic recently.
Now any solution to this has an inherent issue associated with it - it'll be uncomfortable to someone. Whatever is done, it'll negatively affect someone, just by the fact of change alone. You cannot make something better by not changing anything. So anything you do or don't do, you will alienate a portion of your playerbase.
Early/Mid-game vs Late game.
Early and mid game is lauded, late game is considered boring. But why? For startes, firefights last longer, require more skill, movement, tactics and outsmarting your opponent. You value your life, you feel respect even for the shittiest of bullets. You have a feeling that the kill is earned. Guns have tons of recoil so you need to pick your shots. It's... I know it's illegal... but it's fun.
Late game however is plagued with a number of issues. Gear gets dominated by very similar loadouts that cover approx 10% of the gear in the game. There's nowhere to progress as you've reached the ceiling. The excitement from killing a kitted player diminishes as time goes as the economy saturates. People start being picky with their loot and only the good stuff brings any sort of satisfaction. The hideout provides a steady, predictable stream of income.
You let it run long enough it becomes a mindless PVP battleground.
Side note - the black and white fallacy of the makeup of the community.
Casuals vs hardcores. Rats vs Chads. Whenever a discussion pops up this dichotomy is always present. "Feature X hurts casuals but doesn't bother hardcore gamers playing 8h a day". No. Like anything in life the population of EFT is subject to the bellcurve distribution. There are hardcore sweaties grinding out the kappa within a week and there are also sunday gamers. Then there's everything else in between. Let's keep that in mind.
You don't need to be a streamer or play the game as a full time job to make money. We have a discord for 30+ yr old gamers with families and all of us were swimming in roubles and gear after 3 months of the past wipe. Sure it takes us longer than streamers, but still.
The meta
Taking weapons as an example. Different items have different stats (recoil, ergonomics, etc), some are obviously better than others which obviously makes them more sought after. There are also different ammo types for every caliber. Then lastly we come to the guns which directly tie into the first point, by their base stats and how much those can be brought down/up by attachments.
If you have a plethora of items that have different stats, there's sure to be an optimal loadout. If that optimal loadout is always available at an attainable price to the point where you can run it consistently, then there's really no reason to run anything less. This is the meta and at the moment it's basically a synonym for best in slot.
Appealing to a greater good such as gameplay variety is in vain because people will do everything to put themselves in the best possible position. If that means running whatever flavor of meta weapon that is - VAL, M4, FAL alongside top tier lvl 5 or 6 armor over and over and over and over again, so be it. We all know that's not the only way to get by in EFT, but all else being equal - top gear puts you on equal footing at minimum.
Trash contextualizes treasure. A rare item is not rare if everyone is running it. It's a normal item.
Gear minmaxing combined with a ceiling in progression create a situation where the game becomes stale, people get bored and we get chants for a wipe to releave the pressure.
Wipes
Wipes however, even at set intervals, are not the solution. Every wipe, in the absence of something fundamentally new, gives you (rapidly) diminishing returns. Doing the same quests over and over is an absolute drag. It's my 7th wipe and this time around I've really hit a brick wall with them. Now imagine doing them every 3 months. Maybe just do an inventory and trader level wipe? Yeah, that's just skipping one part of it and arriving at the same point but even quicker, considering how quickly you can make money.
The endpoint being - having enough money to run anything you want all the time without the fear of getting broke. Or in the abstract, having a big enough cushion to make any blow from a bad streak become inconsequential.
All of that is just a perpetuation of the same sawtooth progression. Grind, saturate, wipe, grind, saturate, wipe.
Side note - persistent character vs wiped character
I know there have been talks about having two characters - one persistent that's not wiped and one seasonal that is. On paper this might look like a good solution, but there are some problems.
POE players would have to chip in, but I reckong, that in a way this might become a form of matchmaking - the persistent character would be a mode for "sunday" players, while the wiped one for the sweats. I mean, maybe that's the way to go, but if the game is to gave any longevity, the persistent character will eventually face the same issues as the current game, it'll just take longer to develop.
Unpopular opinion - The economy is just a set of time and effort gated unlocks.
There have been multiple ideas to prolong a wipe, but in my view the fundamental issue with those is that they're based off the same linear progression - start from scratch and acumulate wealth until saturation. Some of these ideas include restricting labs till level X, locking behind a quest or just disabling it for a month. The problem with these is that it's just delaying the inevitable, while also giving a direct buff to those who get there first as they'll have the place virtually to themselves.
What follows is also the concept of "starting mid wipe", which essentially means that the gear disparity is so big that the further into a wipe, the more difficult it is to catch up. That effort is directly correlated with experience - the more experience you have the easier it is for you to reset or jump in midwipe. Extending a wipe potentially alleviates that by giving people more opportunity to catch up, but also pushes away from coming back/into the game if they recognize that it had passed their personal breakpoint where it's too hard / frustrating.
Perpetual mid-game
So out of all of that, a clearer picture emerges. We have to somehow find a solution to always have something to work for, but also not give the impression that you're up against an impenetrable wall.
That means that the game needs to pivot around something colloquially known as mid game. How would we define mid-game? That's another debate, but for the sake of the argument we could define that as something in the range of:
That would be the sort of mean loadout you can run on a consistent basis and you'd see the majority of the time. From the sentiment across the community, this seems to be the most enjoyable state of the game, where the sweetspot is in terms of protection and vulnerability, but allowing a lot of headroom for both variety and
Solutions
Now we must have to remember that there's a number of changes inbound that will alleviate some of the issues:
But those are sill far on the horizon.
The uncomfortable reality is that in order to truly balance that you have only a few choices. One is to go down the route of typical FPS tropes where every weapon type is perfectly balanced (i.e. shotguns powerfull but limited range, smg's low recoil, high ROF but weaker, dmrs powerful but high recoil and low ROF, etc). I don't think this will be ever a thing in the game.
Another one is to make attachments roughly equal and just attribute the differences to the tacticool visual factor. This would be realistic in a way, but would take away from the game.
The last one is to price them out. Literally. I'm of the unpopular opinion that endgame should not be a stage, it should be a state.
Dynamic pricing
I know I know, last time it failed spectacularly. However, that was a different flea market and the implementation was poorly thought out. Since it didn't have a pivot point to relate to it caused widespread inflation of even the most basic items and was prone to manipulation.
However the concept in principal has proven itself to work - M995 was essentially priced out of existence and forced people to look for alternatives like M855A1 or M856A1 or different calibers alltogether. Even the sweaties of sweats got a bit excited when they killed someone with 3 60rounders filled with M995. See where I'm going with this?
The execution was poor and poorly thought out.
But how about a different implementation? Adjust the prices based on how much an item is (or is not) bought compared to other items of the same item type. Most popular items' price (of a specific category) increases, while the least popular one decreases.
This could also be coupled with (or as an alternative) an additional rarity factor which would sort of specify how volatile the price is. Continuing the ammo example M995 would have the highest rarity factor and would be very prone to price increases, while the likes of M855 would be considered common and have a much more stable price.
Obviously this would be subject to long term trends and would not happen overnight. But the main aim is to dynamically scale the economy to the general wealth of the playerbase around a certain pivot point which we established before as the mid-game.
This would be a quite significant blow to the uberchads as they would unironically struggle to maintain a profit from their runs. And yes, some of them would still probably be able to pull this off, but remember what we said about the bell curve? It's just about making them so insignificant in the global player pool that they'd be a very rare occurance.
Global item pools
This idea has been floated around by Nikita some time ago but we have no ETA on this. In short - for some items, there is only a set amount that is present in circulation. For example there are only X amount of ReapIR's in the entire economy - spawns, traders, player stashes. If everyone hoards them in their stashes - thats where they'll remain. They don't spawn on maps, they're not sold on traders. Only until they're lost they get reinjected into the item pool.
This idea should be reserved only for the absolute top tier OP items. Something that you'd get all giddy if found/looted and you'd contemplate taking it out.
Side note, the X amount should scale to the active playerbase, which could be something like a weekly or biweekly moving average of people actively playing the game in a set period.
Insurance
This one is a bit controversial but also attributes to some of the in game inflation and gear recirculation. If you run a large squad, even if one of you dies, there's a high chance someone will survive and secure others' gear. And even if all of you die, something's bound to come back.
This might be a bit controversial, but I think group size should have a debuff to the chance of getting your gear back the higher the bigger your squad size, for example an incremental 10% chance for each additional squadmate.
Hideout adjustments
Right now fuel consumption is static no matter how much stuff is going on. What if the fuel consumption rate was tied to the size of your bitcoin farm and the amount of crafting going on.
Additionally hideout appliances could wear out and require maintenance, which would grant them performance debuffs like increased crafting time.
Dynamic stocks.
Right now stocks are predictable. You have the same amount of items at a set interval. Things like traders missing some items or not getting a restock due to broken supply lines, which can be cheekily tied into...
Dynamic global events/quests
Such as as getting rid of scavs on a particular location to remove the roadblock. These might be done per player or as a global event where everyone has to chip in.
Summary
The subject is difficult and solutions are not simple, but what I do know is that eventually Tarkov will have settle into an identity which will come with a sacrifice either at the expense of vision or mainstream popularity.
Thank you for coming to my TEDTalk. I'd like to give a heartfelt thank you to the 5 people that read this wall of text.
submitted by sunseeker11 to EscapefromTarkov [link] [comments]

I wish all of these 1000 universes would combine into one

The one thousand universes are:
Real Life, Super Mario, The Legend of Zelda, Pokemon, Sonic the Hedgehog, Crash Bandicoot, Halo, Call of Duty, Earthbound, Five Nights at Freddy’s, DC, Marvel, Ghostbusters, Pac-Man, Mega Man, Bomberman, The Lego Movie, Scooby-Doo, Super Meat Boy, Memes, Wreck-it Ralph, Skylanders, The A-Team, Knight Rider, The Goonies, Mortal Kombat, Street Fighter, Blend S, Vocaloid, UTAU, Spyro the Dragon, The Simpsons, Futurama, Harry Potter, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, The Lord of the Rings, Mission, Impossible, Gremlins, Gnomeo and Juliet, Powerpuff Girls, Powerpuff Girls Z, Beetlejuice, My Little Pony Friendship Is Magic, My Little Pony Equestria Girls, Black Rock Shooter, Lego Dimensions, Portal, Plants Vs Zombies, Machinarium, Rock 'em Sock 'em Robots, Baldi’s Basics, Puzzle Puppers, Crane Game Toreba, Snipperclips, Puyo Puyo, Kirby, Lego City Undercover, Ninjago, Legends of Chima, Nexo Knights, Diary of a Wimpy Kid, Poptropica, Resident Evil, Peanuts, Robot Chicken, Scribblenauts, Splatoon, ARMS, Bee Movie, Shrek, Octopath Traveler, Bubsy, Drawn To Life, Drawn Together, Toy Story, A Bug’s Life, Finding Nemo, Wall-E, The Good Dinosaur, Inside Out, Captain Underpants, Timmy Failure, Spongebob Squarepants, The Loud House, The Fairly OddParents, Invader Zim, Cow & Chicken, Samurai Jack, Adventure Time, Regular Show, Steven Universe, Clarence, Uncle Grandpa, Plague Inc., Sailor Moon, Ghost Trick, Ace Attorney, Professor Layton, Looney Tunes, Yu Gi Oh, Beyblade, Yo-Kai Watch, Cars, Team Fortress, Half Life, The Sims, Cory In The House, Annoying Orange, My Hero Academia, Mr. Peabody and Sherman, E.T. The Extra Terrestrial, Back to the Future, Rick & Morty, Family Guy, Doki Doki Literature Club, Angry Birds, Fruit Ninja, Jetpack Joyride, Out There, Akinator, Dragon Ball, Super Smash Bros, Star Wars, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, Lonely Wolf Treat, Syrup and the Ultimate Sweet, First Kiss as a Spooky Soiree, Contract Demon, Romance Detective, Tunnel Vision, KAIMA, Her Tears Were My Light, Mermaid Splash Passion Festival, The Twilight Zone, Disaster Log C, Yandere Simulator, Yanderella, Mikoto Nikki, Mix Ore, The Dark Side of Red Riding Hood, Makoto Mobius, You Me And Empty Words, Shihori Escape, Tsukimi Planet, Full Boko Youchien, Love Live, Menherafflesia, Roco Kingdom, Seer, Mole’s World, Hawaiian Slammers, Planes, Frozen, Tangled, One Piece, Fairy Tail, Naruto, Shin Megami Tensei, Persona, Digimon, No Matter How I Look At It It’s You Guy’s Fault I’m Not Popular!, I Can’t Believe My Little Sister is This Cute, THE [email protected], High School DxD, Hihi Puffy Ami Yumi Show, Momoe Link, Minecraft, Locked Heart, Confess my Love, Transparent Black, Nintendo Badge Arcade, Swapnote, World of Goo, Rayman, Little Inferno, Amazing Alex, Banjo - Kazooie, Yooka-Laylee, Sly Cooper, RWBY, Despicable Me, Nomad of Nowhere, Bravest Warriors, Xenoblade Chronicles, Punch Out!!, Contra, Silent Hill, Tokimeki Memorial, Spelunker, Spelunky, Zork, Bit Trip, VVVVVV, Runman Race Around the World, N, Princess Tomato in the Salad Kingdom, Hitman, Tomb Raider, Metal Gear, Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing, Metroid, Gradius, Zone of the Enders, I Wanna Be The Guy, Jumper, Braid, Alien Hominid, Castle Crashers, Charlie Murder, The Emoji Movie, Castlevania, Animator vs Animation, Brave, Hello Neighbor, The Storey Treehouse, Wacky Game Jokez 4 Kidz, The Nightmare Before Christmas, Bayonetta, Mii, Wario, Donkey Kong, Yoshi, Unikitty!, Sword Art Online, Squid Girl, Slenderman, The Flintsones, The Berenstain Bears, The Jetsons, Okami, Sushi Striker Way of the Sushido, Shovel Knight, Kid Icarus, Jurassic Park, Tom Gates, Art Academy, Fortnite, PLAYERUNKNOWN’S BATTLEGROUNDS, Fallout, The Land Before Time, Doctor Who, The Lego Batman Movie, Himegoto, Marchen Madchen, Bojack Horseman, Total Drama, Toradora, One Punch Man, Attack on Titan, Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf, Fullmetal Alchemist, The Wizard of Oz, Super Smosh, Alfred and Poe, Dev Guy, Valentine Panic, Seduce Me The Otome, Trick and Treat, Haruka Winter Dreams, Scratch, 9, The Problem Solverz, Animal Inspector, Liar Liar, Love or Die, MisSHAPEn Love, Pervert&Yandere, Paper Roses, BookSLEEPer, Heartbaked, Lads in Distress, Teletubbies, Thomas & Friends, The Walking Dead, The Big Bang Theory, 13 Reasons Why, F.R.I.E.N.D.S, Gumby, Gravity Falls, Welcome to the Wayne, Tom and Jerry, Baka to Test, Golden Time, Searching, Taken, Charming, Ballerina, Home Improvement, The Sandlot, Flappy Bird, Swing Copters, Turbo, Pocket Protectors, BoxBoy!, The Barefoot Bandits, Letter Quest, Overcooked, Hydlide, Oh Sir!, Taco Man Plays a Video Game, Game Gramps, Pepsiman, Gamestop, VOEZ, DEEMO, Cytus, Kitten Squad, Super Mario Logan, Dr. Stone, Bee and Puppycat, Over the Garden Wall, Star vs The Forces of Evil, Power Rangers, Danny Phantom, The Adventures of Jimmy Neutron Boy Genius, Planet Sheen, Dexter’s Laboratory, Foster's Home for Imaginary Friends, Chowder, The Amazing World of Gumball, We Bare Bears, Felix the Cat, Bendy and the Ink Machine, Outbreak Company, Tokyo Mew Mew, Puella Magi Madoka Magica, Card Captor Sakura, Ghostmates, Smosh, Bunsen is a Beast, Coco, Monsters Inc., The Incredibles, Spirited Away, Becky Prim, Kim Possible, Meet the Robinsons, The Little Mermaid, Zootopia, Taiko no Tatsujin, Alien, The Lego Ninjago Movie, Gundam, The Muppets, Alf, Neon Genesis Evangelion, The X-Files, Godzilla, Final Destination, Ice Age, Lilo and Stitch, RoboCop, The Terminator, Saw, The Purge, 50 Shades of Grey, Tron, Dead Space, Overwatch, Fatal Fury, Ratchet and Clank, Jak and Daxter, Tekken, A Boy and his Blob, Ace Combat, Master Higgins, Adventures of Lolo, Aero the Acro-bat, Ape Escape, Asteroids, Battletoads, Spooky’s House of Jumpscares, The Call of Cthulhu, Chibi-Robo, Frankenstein, Dracula, Boku no Pico, Burger Time, Citrus, Putt-Putt, Pajama Sam, Prison Tycoon, RollerCoaster Tycoon, Restaurant Empire, Frogger, Freddi Fish, Fatty Bear, Spy Fox, Gal Gun, Game & Watch, Guitar Hero, Rock Band, The Man With The Invisible Trousers, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Passpartout, Just Dance, Sega Hard Girls, Kinectimals, Left 4 Dead, Life is Strange, LittleBigPlanet, LovePlus, Nights, Naughty Bear, Ted, Houdini (2014 Movie), Q*bert, Pixels, Touhou Project, Toejam and Earl, The Oregon Trail, The Organ Trail, Yakuza, Mall Tycoon, Zoo Tycoon, Yukon Trail, Detention, The Nutshack, LazyTown, Purgatory, Desolate Village, The Desolate Hope, The Pilgrim’s Progress, Captain Bible, Bad Milk, Journey to the West, Death Squared, Watch_Dogs, Sleeping Dogs, Paletta, Wrecking Crew, Sara is Missing, Simulacra, Welcome to the Game, Rides with Strangers, A Normal Lost Phone, Mogeko Castle, Wadanohara and the Great Blue Sea, Little Nightmares, Little Einsteins, Sally Face, Fran Bow, Kick the Buddy, Strange Case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde, Phineas and Ferb, Big Nate, Nate is Late, The Ring, Inanimate Insanity, Winx Club, Tinkerbell, Sausage Party, The Lord of the Rings, Duck Hunt, Starfox, F-Zero, Enchanted, Roblox, Hearthstone, Talking Tom, Crossy Road, Granny, The Titanic, Dexter, How I Met Your Mother, El Tigre, Mucha Lucha, The Book of Life, Cuphead, Waterworld, GradeAUnderA, Foodfight!, Cyanide and Happiness, JoJo’s Bizarre Adventure, The Grim Adventures of Billy and Mandy, The Brave Little Toaster, PlayStation, Scott Pilgrim vs The World, Club Penguin, Sonic.exe, Pivot Stick Animator, Mr. Bean, Skitzo, Captain N The Game Master, Waluigi Travels Through The Multiverse, Parappa the Rapper, God of War, Uncharted, Bioshock, Paperboy, Gauntlet, 720°, Marble Madness, Spy vs Spy, Xbox, A Kingdom for Keflings, Cloudberry Kingdom, Girls Like Robots, Can Your Pet, Snail, Snail Bob, The King’s Avatar, King’s Knight, King’s Quest, Monster Bark, Haunt the House, Detective Grimoire, Sort the Court, Wallace and Gromit, Frankenweenie, Atelier, Recetterar An Item Shop’s Tale, Tales Of, Lost Sphear, PETA, Cooking Mama, Gish, Aquaria, Owlboy, Alex Kidd, Space Channel 5, Mighty no. 9, Blaster Master, Vroom in the Night Sky, Azure Striker Gunvolt, Senran Kagura, Disgaea, The Legend of Dark Witch, Pico’s School, Riddle School, Clock Crew, Lock Legion, Steamshovel Harry, Bionicles, Hero Factory, Alien Conquest, XCOM, Chantelise, Yobi’s Basic Spelling Tricks, The House of the Dead, The Typing of the Dead, Cartoon All-Stars to the Rescue, Where’s Wally?, Where’s Waldo?, Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego, Adam Ruins Everything, South Park, The Human Centipede, CollegeHumor, Kingdom Hearts, King Kong, Friday the 13th, Nightmare on Elm Street, Edward Scissorhands, Devil May Cry, Final Fantasy, Food Wars! Shokugeki no Soma, DanTDM, Anthony Padilla, The Hunchback of Notre Dame, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Who Framed Roger Rabbit?, Angry Video Game Nerd, James Bond, Epic, Dance Dance Revolution, Edd Edd n’ Eddy, Hey Arnold, Codename Kids Next Door, Back to Backspace, Big City Greens, Danger Planet, Twelve Forever, Infinity Train, Jack & Jill (Adam Sandler), Red Dog, Air Bud, 101 Dalmations, Element Animations, The Suite Life of Zack & Cody, That’s So Raven, Milo Murphy’s Law, Even Stevens, The Adventures of Pete & Pete, Malcolm in the Middle, Hotel Transylvania, DuckTales, Elena of Avalor, Sofia the First, The Proud Family, The Emperor’s New Groove, American Dragon Jake Long, Fanboy & Chum Chum, Fish Hooks, Smart House, Invisible Dad, Tender Loving Care, My Magic Dog, Boy Meets World, Sabrina the Teenage Witch, Shorty Mc Shorts’ Shorts, Shezow, Call of Duty Dog, Sonic for Hire, Video Game Violence Saves the World from Violent Video Games, Doge, Nyan Cat, Wolfychu, Lilypichu, Emirichu, TheOdd1sOut, Domics, Jaiden Animations, Game Theory, Dorkly, Pokemon Rusty, The Greatest Showman, Doodle Jump, Happy Jump, Seen, Color Switch, Agar.io, Slither.io, Cookie Clicker, Donut County, Bitcoin Billionaire, Paper.io, Highschool Romance, Highschool Possession, Nekopara, Ren'Py, Voltron Legendary Defender, Wander Over Yonder, Kablam!, Doug, Avatar The Last Airbender, The Legend of Korra, Garfield, Calvin & Hobbes, Lego DC, Lego Friends, FL Studio, R.O.B., The Texas Chainsaw Massacre, Ice Climber, Captain Commando, Dr. Horrible’s Sing-Along Blog, Papers Please, Blocksworld, Ironpants, Happy Wheels, The Truman Show, EdTV, Duck Life, The Average Everyday Adventures of Samantha Browne, Cinderella Phenomenon, Our Home (visual novel), A Day in the Life of a Slice of Bread, a(t)rium, Date (almost) Anything Simulator, [email protected], Stalker & Yandere, Tealy & Orangey, Geometry Dash, Duck Season, Ginosaji - The Horribly Slow Murderer with the Extremely Inefficient Weapon, McDonald’s, Karate Kid, Llamas with Hats, The Misfortune of Being Ned, Super Hexagon, Perfect Dark, Devil World, Balloon Fight, h3h3Productions, Gnoggin, Yo Gabba Gabba, Crazy Frog, Angels of Death, Imaginary Friends (RPG), Cherry Tree High Comedy Club, Pony Island, HuniePop, Tattletail, Corpse Party, Friendship (RPG), Aria’s Story, 1bitheart, Leftway, Tim’s Birthday, Ib, GLITCHED, Amnesia, The Stanley Parable, Long Live the Queen, Draw a Stickman, QWOP, GIRP, Papa’s Games, Whale Trail, 5 Minutes to Kill Yourself, Doodle God, Free Icecream, The Fancy Pants Adventures, Fireboy & Watergirl, 60 Seconds, 60 Parsecs, Getting Over It, Sexy Hiking, I Am Bread, Surgeon Simulator, RapeLay, Mister Mosquito, Cubivore, Custer’s Revenge, Pizza Chef (Atari 2600), Postal, Hatred, Leisure Suit Larry, Jones in the Fast Lane, Manhunt, Hatoful Boyfriend, Bully, Night Trap, Mass Effect, House Party, Who’s Your Daddy, Second Life, Shower With Your Dad Simulator 2015, What’s Under Your Blanket!?, Battle Raper, The Maiden Rape Assault - Violent Semen Inferno, Hetalia, Ouran High School Host Club, Rinse and Repeat, DeviantArt, Mystic Messenger, Moemon, Segagaga, Football Manager, CrossFire, Flicky, Captain Novolin, Sega Bass Fishing, Hiragana Pixel Party, Captain Rainbow, The Wonderful 101, The Elder Scrolls, Caller’s Bane, Cobalt, Candy Crush, Sharknado, Who Killed Captain Alex, Archie Comics, Smokey Bear, McGruff the Crime Dog, Neighbours from Hell, Neighbors from Hell, Danganronpa, VeggieTales, Oshi High School Battle, Teleporting Fat Guy (Animated Series), Smosh Babies, Planets (Shut Up! Cartoons), The Day My Bum Went Psycho, The Day My Butt Went Psycho, What’s With Andy?, The Andy Griffith Show, Leave it to Beaver, Pikmin, Face Raiders, Part Timers, Trollface Quest, Coraline, Aladdin, Chibi Miku San, This Man Sono Kao o Mita Mono ni wa Shi o, Vsauce, Kirarin Revolution, Stellar Theatre, Hanazuki Full of Treasures, Penn Zero Part Time Hero, The Croods, Shawn the Sheep, Shakugan no Shana, Early Man, Walking with Dinosaurs, League of Angels, League of Legends, World of Warcraft, Starcraft, Stardew Valley, Rune Factory, Story of Seasons, Harvest Moon, Botanicula, Fingered, Lucky Star, Akame ge Kill, Kill la Kill, Cowboy Bebop, Recovery of an MMO Junkie, KonoSuba, God’s Blessing on this Wonderful World!, Natsuiro Haisukuru★Seishun Hakusho ~Tenkou Shonichi no Ore ga Osananajimi to Saikai shitara Houdoubuin ni Sarete ite Gekisha Shounen no Hibi wa Sukuupu Dairenpatsu de Igai to Motemote nanoni Nazeka Mai Memori wa Pantsu Shashin Bakkari toiu Genjitsu to Mukiainagara Kangaeru Hitonatsu no Shima no Gakuen Seikatsu to Sekirarana Koi no Yukue.~, Short Circuit, Boyhood, Honey, I Shrunk the Kids, In Another World with My Smartphone, Wizard101, Sociolotron, Lego Island, RuneScape, Façade, Bad Rats, Iron Soul, Crisis City, Space Dude, Lula, Money Town, The Magic School Bus, Soda Drinker Pro, I Was A Sword When I Reincarnated, My Reincarnation as a Hot Spring in a Different World is Beyond Belief ~ It's Not Like Being Inside You Feels Good or Anything!?, Island, Crush Crush, Yandere I Love You So I Want to Kill You, Kimi to Kanojo to Kanojo no Koi, Kimi to mita sora no uta, City Connection, Cinders, AdVenture Capitalist, Tiny Tower, Pocket Planes, Pocket Trains, Pocket Frogs, I Am [Shape], Melancholic, Stargazer (song), Love Trial, Pou, One Chance, Dear Diary The Secrets of Anna, Episode, Kim Kardashian Hollywood, Sabreman, Kameo Elements of Power, It’s Mr. Pants, Whatever Happened to... Robot Jones?, Snakes on a Plane, Crazy Rich Asians, Soul Eater, 911 Operator, Ultra Series, The Adventures of Kid Danger, Johnny Test, Brawl in the Family, Meteor 60 Seconds, OK K.O Let's Be Heroes!, BoBoiBoy, DragonVale, Crush the Castle, Demonic Crepes, Barbie, Lego Elves, Spy Kids, Baby Geniuses, Laserblast, Giftpia, Panel De Pon, Shin Onigashima, The Mysterious Murasame Castle, nigahiga, Dragon City, Clash of Clans, Keep Talking and Nobody Explodes, My Life as a Teenage Robot, Gender Bender DNA Twister Extreme, Inuyasha, Inuyashiki, Scream, Manual Samuel, Flipping Death, Tiny Thief, Boom Beach, Reigns, The Escapists, A Hat in Time, Murder Police, Dragalia Lost, Aqua Teen Hunger Force, Dora the Explorer, Doraemon, Inception, The Matrix, Fight Club, The Godfather, We Bought a Zoo, White Chicks, Dumb and Dumber, BASEketball, The Breakfast Club, Donnie Darko, The Devil Wears Prada, Darkwing Duck, Jaws, Mean Girls, The Room, Lost, Never Been Kissed, Tarzan, The Sixth Sense, The Help, The Shining, Rocky, Sing, Blade Runner, Cut the Rope, Enter the Ninja, Surf Ninjas, Jazza, Dork Diaries, Lifeline, Project Hyrax, Future Diary, Panty & Stocking with Garterbelt, Todo Today, Happy Heroes, Asura’s Wrath, ZONE, 3 Ninjas, Dragon Quest, The Uncle Dolan Show, Jonny Quest, Space Ghost, Chipper & Sons Lumber Co., One Night Stand, GEICO, Dodo, Transformers, Bravely Default, Henry Danger, SMG4, Meta Runner, Rumble Roses, Mystical Ninja, Bio Miracle, Pop’n Music, Star Soldier, The Legendary Starfy, Gears of War, Drakengard, NieR, Nintendo Labo, Earth-chan, Rage Comics, Advice Animals, Buddhism, Bakusou Yankee Damashii, Hanjuku Hero, Mana, Front Mission, EverQuest, Radiata Stories, Brave Fencer Musashi, SaGa, Grandia, Heavy Metal Thunder, Code Age, Fantasy Earth Zero, Valkyrie Profile, Silpheed, Project Sylpheed, Concerto Gate, Odin Sphere, The World Ends With You, Star Ocean, Exit (Video Game), SCP Foundation, A Certain Magical Index, Fate, ‘Splosion Man, I Am Setsuna, Megamind, Re: Zero - Starting Life In Another World, Black Mirror, osu!, Celeste, Red vs. Blue, That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime, Sit ‘N Survive, The Boys, Negative Nancy, Viewtiful Joe, DAEMON X MACHINA, Astral Chain, Job Simulator, Dungeons and Dragons, Homestuck, & The Holy Bible.
Found this on Thedouchebaggenie
submitted by thegreatestoneofall to TheMonkeysPaw [link] [comments]

FIRE: 2 years in, a few (more) reflections

Last year I wrote a reflection on my first year of FIRE. It got a lot of traction and seemed well liked so I thought I’d write the year 2 version… Here is the first one if you want to see it:
My background: I’m a scientist in my mid 40’s who got into the big data side of tech just as it took off. I worked for a few large companies, and a few small companies, both as an FTE and consultant. During one of my “no job, no consulting” periods in the late fall (notoriously hard time to find a new job as everyone is on vacation, spent their budgets, etc.) I fell deep into the bitcoin rabbit hole researching what it was, what it might become etc. I bought in a few times and sold my holdings in December 2017 (not at the peak, but close) for about 1.5M. I had saved a shit-ton of money over the years (almost 1M) because I never spend other than buying/fixing up my house. The FIRE idea was natural to me – I had an instinctual aversion to debt, simple tastes, and grew up without a lot (but didn’t feel like that was an issue). My job was not really going in a direction I liked, and I had just cashed over a million post-tax cryptobucks so I quit. I figured I’d try being unemployed, maybe call it “semi-retirement”? With all my retirement, bank, and stock accounts bundled together, including house equity I had close to 4M. Since retirement my portfolio has grown an additional 10% (after my living expenses) to 4.4M.
Reflection 1: I’m not scared of the market anymore
Maybe “scared” is too strong a word. Right after I quit my job, the market started dropping. Everyone says “don’t watch the market” but I couldn’t help it. I JUST STARTED the next phase after all. Well, everyone is right – ignore that shit. I felt a little bit off at first – and I mention that in the first post last year. Now… it truly is not a big deal to me, I just grab the data once a month because I like to track it. I have a balanced portfolio and plenty of time. Not worth the sweating over. I feel I am truly ready for whatever the next real drop ends up looking like.
Reflection 2: I’m used to the lack of cash flow now
After watching my bank account grow twice a month, and having to move money into investments every so often, I got used to it. Not having that as part of my financial journey anymore felt weird. Having to take cash (from dividend payments – this is my primary cash flow source now) out of my account to fatten up my bank account felt super weird (money goes IN there, not OUT from there.) I had tracked my spending for several years prior to FIRE, and now that I am there I also tracked it and I basically spend the same amount so moving cash to the savings account every once in a while is the new norm.
Reflection 3: I’m willing to spend some of that money (wisely) now
At first I felt a little bit poor again – the money inflow was slow, new, weird. I didn’t want to mess it all up somehow. I’ve never been a big spender to begin with, but it felt like I was “on a special budget” or something. Why the hell would I FIRE if it meant I had to act like a pauper to do so (respect to my LeanFIRE friends, but that’s not my deal)? So now I’m willing to dip in a bit to make things work for how my life is shaping up post-work. I moved to a new city (renting) and rented out my house back in the old city. I’m considering buying a house here. I might sell my other house in a few years. I have options and the money makes those options broader. I might not execute these moves with economic perfection, but the money I have makes me feel like some slippage is not going to wreck me. Up until now, I have considered the brokerage stocks to be on untouchable lockdown. That is no longer the case if I can convert the money into what I need to be happy here in this new city – and I realize now that I really hate renting.
Reflection 4: Sometimes I feel like it isn’t quite enough (how the fuck)
Some people will always complain that their lump of gold isn’t big enough, and I tend to think those people are pain in the ass jerks. That said, I realize that there are times I wish I had a bit more… to put into special projects or pursuits that did not dip into my block of savings. One Idea I have had is to do some pick-up work and use 100% of that money for special projects and no savings. I haven’t quite figured it out yet, as these are just ideas right now, but the big revelation is that I thought I’d be done with feeling like I needed (“wanted” is a better word honestly) any more money but if I am being honest, that is not the case.
Reflection 5: I thought I might want to do some work – I was right
I took on a little work, but not too much. I helped a friend define and scope out a professional pivot and we figured out a way to do some additional work together. Working with him after 16 months off was really fun, and reminded me that I have some pretty cool superpowers that others do not. I think maybe you get so used to doing your thing in your groove that it becomes hard to take a bystander view. Applying myself to his situation which had some overlap to my old work but was also novel in many ways, and adapting my strategic consulting on the fly was quite satisfying. Drinking whiskey while consulting might have helped. That kind of work makes me feel a particular kind of excitement that I don’t get in other places. I need to learn how to tap into that more.
Reflection 6: It’s ok to do nothing sometimes
While I always had a great work ethic, I’ve never been a person to endlessly grind. I appreciate quiet reflection time, or do nothing except stare at the water time. Now that I am FIRE, and only working every once in a while (seriously – not a lot) I can forgive myself if a day or more goes by and I haven’t done anything particularly useful. I no longer view it as “wasting time”. I also think of all the days I went to work, mucked with emails, cranked the levers of industry, and went home, made a fire and drank a beer and ask “how different, to me, truly, is what that was vs. what this is from a personal growth, usefulness, or other internal concept?” The answer is basically “they are the same.”
In closing
I’ve acclimated to my new method of financial cycles. The discomfort in the novel has faded. I’m in a bit of a spot where it’s hard to make certain types of plans due to my aging parents and the potential for radical changes in their lives that I want to be able to help them navigate. It’s not radically tying me down by any means, it just changes the scope from “100% complete autonomy and freedom” to something a little less so for a bit.
I’ve taken up a bit of woodworking. I went to physical therapy for my lower back and have really focused on getting that in order – it feels better than it has in years! I cook a bit more. I read books. I write essays. I’m involved in an online community working on some future technology in the cryptographic space. I take a lot of walks. I’m never bored.
I feel like I’m in “phase 2: acclimate and relax.” Happy to answer any questions.
Edit: Ok guys, I'm out. See you again in a year or so. Thanks for the questions, well-wishes and conversation
submitted by FIRE_and_forget_it to financialindependence [link] [comments]

Bitcoin for NOOBs looking for feedback

I get a lot of questions about bitcoin from friends and family members. I wrote this up and to the best of my knowledge covers everything a NOOB should know about bitcoin. That being said I probably made some mistakes and welcome any feedback from the community I could get on cleaning up the verbiage. Thanks in advance!
Bitcoin For NOOBS Peer to peer digital currency that is scares. It is digitally secure through cryptography and decentralized through open protocol mining principals.
Peer to peer: USD: paper dollars can be exchanged peer to peer but any other form of USD exchange requires your banks permission to use your own money. In fact if you try to pull out too much paper USD your bank may question you.
BTC: Can be exchanged with no middle man. No bank or government permissions needed for any amount and can be exchanged across the global at any time.
Scarsity USD: Print more money just write an IOU to the banks no big deal. Inflationary.
BTC: The number of BTCs that will ever exists is a fixed number it will never change. Deflationary.
Cryptography: USD: With USD the “keys” to your wallet lie with your identity. If I can gain access to your identity I can gain access to your funds. BTC: Your identity does not travel with the coin ledger. Stealing your identity does not mean your funds can be accessed.
Decentralization USD: The federal reserve banks are owned by unknown individuals. Make no mistake the illuminate exists. When the fed prints money the write those unknown individuals and IOU. Out of thin air wealth is created to individuals not the government. You don’t know who they are and never will. BTC: Anyone can mine bitcoin. You dedicate your hardware to mining aka processing transactions. It costs you money to run that hardware. Your reward for your hardware costs is bitcoin. The mathematical principals behind bitcoin do a check for how many mining machines decided if a transaction is real or not. 51% wins. The more bitcoin is used and the more people that dedicate hardware to mining the more digitally secure it becomes.
Bitcoins case for calling it gold 2.0: Currently bitcoin is not acting like the USD but instead acting more like gold a store of value. Long ago before the dollar gold was the standard. The government attempted to issue greenbacks however no one wanted them since gold was the tradition and was scares in supply. The government decided to back the dollar with federal gold reserves. Federal reserves no longer exist as they once have in fact if you invest in gold via the stock market there is a slim chance it is backed by any type of gold reserve it’s really just all digital money for the most part now a days. While bitcoin is truly limited in supply and scares not only is it a great store of value but it has even more use than gold. It can be exchanged electronically peer to peer across the globe and used via smart contracts etc. A quick google search say that the total value of gold in the world is at roughly 7.5trillon dollars. Gold does has more use than just a store of value via jewlery electronics etc but let’s compare the numbers side by side.
Gold 7.5 trillion BTC market cap 170.5 billion
If you agree BTC is a better store of value or at least a decent store of value since it’s truly limited in supply with more usability then it’s easy to see how much upside potential is left on the table. As the fed continues to put out more money during these economic hard times they are causing inflation while BTC has just undergone a halving aka it’s harder for miners to produce a bitcoin reward meaning deflation. Bitcoin is the perfect place for you to store that big fat government stimulus check if you don’t need the money for awhile.
Edit: added these sections based on feedback from friends.
Dollars and cents: USD: One dollar can be broken down into .01 dollars or 1 cent. This is the smallest unit of measure in USD. BTC: 1 Bitcoin can be broken down into .00000001 bitcoins or 1 sats which is short for Satoshi’s. 1 sat is the smallest unit of measure in terms of BTC.
Owning Bitcoin: You can own bitcoin a few different ways but we will talk about two methods in general. Owning coins through a 3rd party such as Coinbase or Robinhood vs owning your coins via your own hardware wallet. 3rd Party: The platform you use can hold some control over you and limit your funds etc just like a bank. They will take additional fees for each transaction you place etc. This really isn’t what bitcoin was intended for but it’s how most people use it currently. Hardware wallet: You own the currency on a hardware wallet like a Ledger wallet etc. there is no middle man. You own the coin and the “keys”
submitted by JTCampbellJr to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

FAANG Stalls Trannies Surge

For Trading MAY 27TH
ALL 11 S&P Sectors Higher
Today’s market was up after 2 days of strength in the futures markets, including Monday night while we were closed. There was also move vaccine news out of NVAX, which was +11 to $56.50 but could only manage a close of +2.06 (4.47%). The DJIA was dragged higher by the financials as rates rose. After opening +550 or so the DJIA rallied to +710 before a last hour slide back to +529.95 (2.17%), NASDAQ +150 at the open but slide down to barely higher at +15.63 (.47%), S&P 500 opened +65 but could only manage +36.32 (1.23%) while the Russell was +37.54 (2.77%) and the biggest winner was the Transports +425.52 (5.02%). Market internals were strong on the NYSE at 5:1 while the NASDAQ was just 2.2:1 and volume was just average. The DJIA was 24 up / 6 down and the upside was led by financial with GS +110 DPs and BA and JPM +49 AND 43 respectively while the only double-digit losers was AAPL -15 DPs. Also, a major new piece from Mr. Trump’s very great personal friend with whom he has a perfect relationship Premier Xi, was quoted as saying that “China is going to increase preparation for military combat in Hong Kong. I’m fairly sure with all the good will, like Phase one of the Trade infamous trade agreement under which NO SALE of our agricultural goods have actually been consummated, that Mr. Trump will have no problem sending us another few dozen positive tweets from his perfect, most favorite, great friend President Xi. Asia was +1.5% and Europe was up .7% -1.5% on the news that Germany is relaxing it eurozone travel ban. Consumer confidence came out at 10:00 and was a disappointing 86.6 vs. 88.5% expected.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/fkb7EemPHI0
SECTORS: The news couldn’t have been either more positive or well timed. MRK with 2 announcements on a COVID-19 corroboration and another anti-viral project and opened +2.40, but finished +.89 (1%), NVAX $56 +989 (19%) but closed only +2.06, and JPM was lauded by it’s CEO at a conference about their fortress balance sheet and their ability to make money regardless of conditions. Airlines were higher and commodities were mixed with the oil hitting a new recovery high at $34.81, while the gold got slammed -$30. And the Bonds were down 1¼.
FOOD SUPPLY: was HIGHER with TSN +2.68, BGS +.55, FLO -.12, CAG +.61, MDLZ +.10, KHC +.42, CALM +.43, JJSF +4.79, SAFM +3.57, LANC +5.51, GO -.54 and PBJ $30.75 +.15 (.49%).
BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -7.53, ABBV -1.17, REGN -31.90, ISRG -1.71, GILD -.29, MYL +.41 TEVA + .44, VRTX -14.96, BHC +.39, INCY -.59, ICPT -3.16, LABU -3.70 and IBB $131.02 -2.32 (1.74%).
CANNABIS: This group was HIGHER with TLRY +.58, CGC +.67, CRON -.05, GWPH +4.23, ACB -.39, PYX +.13, NBEV -.06, CURLF +.14, KERN +1.20 and MJ $14.38 +.35 (2.49%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +6.38, GD +2.01, TXT +.14, NOC +5.70, BWXT +.15, TDY +6.22, RTX +2.30, and ITA $153.34 +3.27 (2.18%).
RETAIL was HIGHER with M + .96, JWN +1.10, KSS +1.98, DDS +3.00, WMT -.29, TGT -2.34, TJX +1.89, RL +8.66 (11.89%), UAA +.56 (6.71%), LULU +5.27, TPR +.70, CPRI +2.07 (14.28%) and XRT $40.36 +1.18 (3.01%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER after being much higher with GOOGL +10.02, AMZN -16.67, AAPL -1.99, FB -2.51, NFLX -15.32, NVDA -11.82, TSLA +2.82, BABA +2.26, BIDU +4.96, CMG -35.88, CAT +5.53, BA +7.24, DIS +3.32, and XLK $97.00 +.51 (.53%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with the creep up in interest rates with GS +16.37, JPM +6.53, BAC +1.63, MS +3.68, C +4.20, PNC +5.19, AIG +2.26, AXP +5.07, V +2.68, and XLF $23.14 +1.22 (5.57%).
OIL, $34.35 +1.10. Oil was higher today with the close mid-range. I thought that the most recent downside break occurred from just under $29.00 and may stop this move too, but as we saw, it went right through that level. On the rally we bought the US0 6/5 25 puts @ $ .91 and closed them out at $1.29 for a 40%+ gain. The stocks on my list were mostly lower with XLE $39.65 +1.12 (2.91%).%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,705.60 -29.90. After trying to break to new highs Gold failed to follow-thru and opened slightly lower and fell all the way back to trade $1,700. There is good support from here to $1,685 and I’d expect a renewed move higher.
BITCOIN: closed $8785 -390. After breaking down from just over 10,000 and trading 8,220 we started back up and traded all the way back, it failed to make a new recovery high. We broke all the way back to trade 8815 today but managed a move to close just over $9000. We added 350 shares of GBTC last Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $10.18 -.48 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

I wish all of these 1000 universes would combine into one

The one thousand universes are:
Real Life, Super Mario, The Legend of Zelda, Pokemon, Sonic the Hedgehog, Crash Bandicoot, Halo, Call of Duty, Earthbound, Five Nights at Freddy’s, DC, Marvel, Ghostbusters, Pac-Man, Mega Man, Bomberman, The Lego Movie, Scooby-Doo, Super Meat Boy, Memes, Wreck-it Ralph, Skylanders, The A-Team, Knight Rider, The Goonies, Mortal Kombat, Street Fighter, Blend S, Vocaloid, UTAU, Spyro the Dragon, The Simpsons, Futurama, Harry Potter, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, The Lord of the Rings, Mission, Impossible, Gremlins, Gnomeo and Juliet, Powerpuff Girls, Powerpuff Girls Z, Beetlejuice, My Little Pony Friendship Is Magic, My Little Pony Equestria Girls, Black Rock Shooter, Lego Dimensions, Portal, Plants Vs Zombies, Machinarium, Rock 'em Sock 'em Robots, Baldi’s Basics, Puzzle Puppers, Crane Game Toreba, Snipperclips, Puyo Puyo, Kirby, Lego City Undercover, Ninjago, Legends of Chima, Nexo Knights, Diary of a Wimpy Kid, Poptropica, Resident Evil, Peanuts, Robot Chicken, Scribblenauts, Splatoon, ARMS, Bee Movie, Shrek, Octopath Traveler, Bubsy, Drawn To Life, Drawn Together, Toy Story, A Bug’s Life, Finding Nemo, Wall-E, The Good Dinosaur, Inside Out, Captain Underpants, Timmy Failure, Spongebob Squarepants, The Loud House, The Fairly OddParents, Invader Zim, Cow & Chicken, Samurai Jack, Adventure Time, Regular Show, Steven Universe, Clarence, Uncle Grandpa, Plague Inc., Sailor Moon, Ghost Trick, Ace Attorney, Professor Layton, Looney Tunes, Yu Gi Oh, Beyblade, Yo-Kai Watch, Cars, Team Fortress, Half Life, The Sims, Cory In The House, Annoying Orange, My Hero Academia, Mr. Peabody and Sherman, E.T. The Extra Terrestrial, Back to the Future, Rick & Morty, Family Guy, Doki Doki Literature Club, Angry Birds, Fruit Ninja, Jetpack Joyride, Out There, Akinator, Dragon Ball, Super Smash Bros, Star Wars, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, Lonely Wolf Treat, Syrup and the Ultimate Sweet, First Kiss as a Spooky Soiree, Contract Demon, Romance Detective, Tunnel Vision, KAIMA, Her Tears Were My Light, Mermaid Splash Passion Festival, The Twilight Zone, Disaster Log C, Yandere Simulator, Yanderella, Mikoto Nikki, Mix Ore, The Dark Side of Red Riding Hood, Makoto Mobius, You Me And Empty Words, Shihori Escape, Tsukimi Planet, Full Boko Youchien, Love Live, Menherafflesia, Roco Kingdom, Seer, Mole’s World, Hawaiian Slammers, Planes, Frozen, Tangled, One Piece, Fairy Tail, Naruto, Shin Megami Tensei, Persona, Digimon, No Matter How I Look At It It’s You Guy’s Fault I’m Not Popular!, I Can’t Believe My Little Sister is This Cute, THE [email protected], High School DxD, Hihi Puffy Ami Yumi Show, 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Cartoons), The Day My Bum Went Psycho, The Day My Butt Went Psycho, What’s With Andy?, The Andy Griffith Show, Leave it to Beaver, Pikmin, Face Raiders, Part Timers, Trollface Quest, Coraline, Aladdin, Chibi Miku San, This Man Sono Kao o Mita Mono ni wa Shi o, Vsauce, Kirarin Revolution, Stellar Theatre, Hanazuki Full of Treasures, Penn Zero Part Time Hero, The Croods, Shawn the Sheep, Shakugan no Shana, Early Man, Walking with Dinosaurs, League of Angels, League of Legends, World of Warcraft, Starcraft, Stardew Valley, Rune Factory, Story of Seasons, Harvest Moon, Botanicula, Fingered, Lucky Star, Akame ge Kill, Kill la Kill, Cowboy Bebop, Recovery of an MMO Junkie, KonoSuba, God’s Blessing on this Wonderful World!, Natsuiro Haisukuru★Seishun Hakusho ~Tenkou Shonichi no Ore ga Osananajimi to Saikai shitara Houdoubuin ni Sarete ite Gekisha Shounen no Hibi wa Sukuupu Dairenpatsu de Igai to Motemote nanoni Nazeka Mai Memori wa Pantsu Shashin Bakkari toiu Genjitsu to Mukiainagara Kangaeru Hitonatsu no Shima no Gakuen Seikatsu to Sekirarana Koi no Yukue.~, Short Circuit, Boyhood, Honey, I Shrunk the Kids, In Another World with My Smartphone, Wizard101, Sociolotron, Lego Island, RuneScape, Façade, Bad Rats, Iron Soul, Crisis City, Space Dude, Lula, Money Town, The Magic School Bus, Soda Drinker Pro, I Was A Sword When I Reincarnated, My Reincarnation as a Hot Spring in a Different World is Beyond Belief ~ It's Not Like Being Inside You Feels Good or Anything!?, Island, Crush Crush, Yandere I Love You So I Want to Kill You, Kimi to Kanojo to Kanojo no Koi, Kimi to mita sora no uta, City Connection, Cinders, AdVenture Capitalist, Tiny Tower, Pocket Planes, Pocket Trains, Pocket Frogs, I Am [Shape], Melancholic, Stargazer (song), Love Trial, Pou, One Chance, Dear Diary The Secrets of Anna, Episode, Kim Kardashian Hollywood, Sabreman, Kameo Elements of Power, It’s Mr. Pants, Whatever Happened to... 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[Part 1] KAVA Historical AMA Tracker! (Questions & Answers)

ATTN: These AMA questions are from Autumn 2019 - before the official launch of the Kava Mainnet, and it's fungible Kava Token.
These questions may no longer be relevant to the current Kava landscape, however, they do provide important historical background on the early origins of Kava Labs.
Please note, that there are several repeat questions/answers.

Q1:

Kava is a decentralized DEFI project, why did you implement the countries restrictions to run the node? Will there be such restrictions by the time of the mainnet?

Q2:

According to the project description it has been indicated that staking reward (in KAVA tokens) varies from 3 to 20% per annum. But how will you fight with inflation?

We all know how altcoins prices are falling, and their bottom is not visible. And in fact, we can get an increase in the number of tokens for staking, but not an increase in the price of the token itself and become a long-term investor.

  • Answer: Kava is both inflationary with block rewards, but deflationary when we burn CDP fees. Only stakers who bond their Kava receive inflationary rewards - users and traders on exchanges do not get this. In this way, rewards are inflated, but given to stakers and removed value from the traders who are speculating like a tax. The Deflationary structure of fees should help counterbalance the price drops from inflation if any. In the long-term as more CDPs are used, Kava should be a deflationary asset by design if all things go well

Q3:

In your allocation it is indicated that 28.48% of the tokens are in the "Token treasury" - where will these tokens be directed?

  • Answer: Investors in financing rounds prior to the IEO have entered into long-term lock-up agreements in-line with their belief in Kava’s exciting long-term growth potential and to allow the projects token price to find stability. Following the IEO, the only tokens in circulation will be those sold through the IEO on Binance and the initial Treasury tokens released.
  • No private sale investor tokens are in circulation until the initial release at the end of Q1 2020 and then gradually over the [36] months The initial Treasury tokens in circulation will be used for a mixture of ecosystem grants, the expenses associated with the IEO as well as initial market making requirements as is typical with a listing of this size. Kava remains well financed to execute our roadmap following the IEO and do not envisage any need for any material financings or token sales for the foreseeable future.

Q4:

Such a platform (with loans and stable coins) is just the beginning since these aspects are a small part of many Defi components. Will your team have a plan to implement other functions, such as derivatives, the dex platform once the platform is successfully launched?

  • Answer: We believe Kava is the foundation for many future defi products. We need stable coins, oracles, and other infrastructure first that Kava provides. Once we have that, we can apply these to derivatives and other synthetics more easily. For example, we can use the price feeds and USDX to enable users to place 100x leverage bets with each other. If they both lock funds into payment channels, then they can use a smart contract based on the price feed to do the 100x trade/bet automatically without counter party risk. In this way, Kava can expand its financial product offerings far beyond loans and stable coins in the future.

Q5:

There are several options for using USDX on the KAVA platform, one of which is Margin Trading / Leverage. Is this a selection function or a compulsory function? Wondering since there are some investors who don`t like margin. What is the level of leverage and how does a CDP auction work?

  • Answer: This is a good #Q . Kava simply provides loans to users in USDX stable coins. What the users do is completely up to them. They can use the loans for everyday payments if they like. Leverage and hedging are just the main use cases we foresee - there are many ways people can use the CDP platform and USDX.

Q6:

Most credit platforms do not work well in the current market. What will you do to attract more people to use your platform and the services you provide? Thank you

  • Answer: Most credit platforms do not work well in the current market? I think that isn't correct at least for DeFi. Even in the bear market, MakerDao and Compound saw good user growth. Regardless, our efforts at Kava to build the market are fairly product and BD focused. 1) we build more integrations of assets and expand financial services to attract new communities and users. 2) we focus on building partnerships with high quality teams to promote and build Kava's core user base. Kava is just the developer. Our great partners like Ripple, Stakewith.Us, P2P, Binance - they have the real users that demand Kava. They are like our system integrators that package Kava up nicely and present it to their users. In order to grow, we need to deepen our partnerships and bring in new ones around the world.

Q7:

KAVA functions as a reserve currency in situations where the system is undercollateralized. In such cases new KAVA is minted and used to buy USDX off the market until USDX becomes safely overcollateralized.

Meaning, there will be no max supply of KAVA?

  • Answer: Yes, there is no max supply of Kava.

Q8:

Why Kava?

  • Answer: ...because people are long BTC and the best way to go long BTC without giving up custody is Kava's platform. Because it is MakerDao for bitcoin. Bitcoin has a 10x market cap of ETH and Maker is 10x the size of Kava. I think we're pretty undervalued right now.

Q9:

How do you plan to make liquidity in Kava?

  • Answer: Working with Binance for the IEO and as the first exchange for KAVA to trade on will be a huge boost in increasing the liquidity of trading KAVA.

Q10:

Most crypto investors or crypto users prefer easy transaction and low fees, what can we expect from KAVA about this?

  • Answer: Transaction fees are very low and confirm if seconds. The user experience is quite good on Tendermint-based blockchains.

Q11:

How do I become a note validator on KavA?

Q12:

It is great to know that KAVA is the first DEFI-supported project sponsored by Binance Launchpad, do you think this is the meaning that CZ brings: Opening the DEFI era, as a leader, you feel like how ?

  • Answer: We are the first DeFi platform that Launchpad has supported. We are a very strategic blockchain for major crypto like BNB. Kava's platform will bring more utility to the users of BNB and the Binance DEX. It feels good of course to have validation from the biggest players in the space like Cosmos, Ripple, CZ/Binance, etc.

Q13:

Since decentralized finance applications is already dominating, how do you intend to surpass those leading in the market?

  • Answer: The leaders are only addressing ethereum. BTC, XRP, BNB, ATOM is a much larger set to go after that current players cannot.

Q14:

What does Ripple play in the Kava's ecosystem, since Ripple is like a top tier company and it’s impressive that you are partnered with them?

  • Answer: Ripple is an equity investor in Kava and a big supporter of our work in cross-chain settlement research and implementations. Ripple's XRP is a great asset in terms of users and liquidity that the Kava platform can use. In addition, Ripple's money service business customers are asking for a stable coin for remittances to avoid the currency heading risk that XRP presents. Ripple will not use USDC or other stable coins, but they are open to using USDX as it can be XRP-backed.

Q15:

Considering the connectivity, Libra could be the biggest competitor if KAVA leverages interchain for efficiency.

  • Answer: With regard to USDX, it is important to understand the users interacting with the Kava blockchain have no counterparty that people could go after for legal actions. A user getting a USDX loan has no counterparty. The software holds the collateral and creates the loan. The only laws that would apply are to the very users that are using the system.

Q16:

Wonder how KAVA will compete with the tech giants

  • Answer: Libra is running into extreme issues with the US Senate and regulators. Even the G7-G20 groups are worried. Its important to understand that Libra is effectively a permissioned system. Only big companies that law makers can go after are able to run nodes. In Kava, nodes can be run by anyway and our nodes are based all over the world. It's incredibly hard for a law maker to take down Kava because they would need to find and legally enforce hundreds of business in different jurisdictions to comply. We have an advantage in this way over the larger projects like Libra or Clayton.

Q17:

In long-term, what's the strategy that KAVA has for covering the traditional finance users as well? Especially regarding the "stability"

  • Answer: Technical risk is unavoidable for DeFi. Only time will tell if a system is trustworthy and its never 100% that it will not fail or be hacked. This is true with banks and other financial systems as well. I think for DeFi, the technical risk needs to be priced in to the expected returns to compensate the market. DeFi does have a better user experience - requiring no credit score, identity, or KYC over centralized solutions.
  • With our multi-collateral CDP system, even with it overcollateralized, people can get up to 3x leverage on assets. Take 100 USD in BTC, get a USDX loan for 66 USDX, then buy $66 BTC and do another loan - you can do this with a program to get 3x leverage with the same risk profile. This is enough for most people.
  • However, it will be possible once we have Kava's CDP platform to extend it into products that offer undercollateralized financial products. For example, if USER 1 + USER 2 use payment channels to lock up their USDX, they can use Kava's price feeds to place bets between each other using their locked assets. They can bet that for every $1 BTC/USD moves, the other party owes 3x. In this way we can even do 100x leverage or 1000x leverage and create very fun products for people to trade with. Importantly, even in places where margin trading is regulated and forbidden, Kava's platform will remain open access and available.

Q18:

In long-term, what's the strategy that KAVA has for covering the traditional finance users as well? Especially regarding the "stability"

  • Answer: Kava believes that stable coins should be backed not just by crypto or fiat, but any widely used, highly liquid asset. We think in the future the best stablecoin would be backed by a basket of very stable currencies that include crypto and fiat or whatever the market demands.

Q19:

Compound, maker they're trying to increase their size via the competitive interests rates. THough it shows good return in terms of growth rate, still it's for short-term. Wonder other than financial advantage, KAVA has more for the users' needs?

  • Answer: Robert, the CEO of Compound is an investor and advisor to Kava. We think what Compound does with money markets is amazing and hope to integrate when they support more than just Ethereum assets. Kava's advantage vs others is to provide basic DeFi services like returns on crypto and stable coins today when no other platform offers that. Many platforms support ETH, but no platform can support BTC, XRP, BNB, and ATOM in a decentralized way without requiring centralized custody of these assets.

Q20:

The vast majority of the cryptocurrency community's priorities is symbolic pricing. When prices rise, the community rejoices and grows. When they fall, many people begin to cast in a negative way. How will KAVA solve the negative problem when the price goes down? What is your plan to strengthen and develop the community to persuade more people to look at the product than the price?

  • Answer: We believe price is an important factor for faith in the market. One of Kava's key initiatives was selecting only long-term partners that are willing to work with kava for 2 years. That is why even after 6 months, 0 private investor or kava team tokens will be liquid on the market.
  • We believe not in fast pumps and then dumps that destroy faith, but rather we try and operate the best we can for long-term sustainable growth over time. It's always hard to control factors in the market, and some factors are out of our control such as BTC price correlations, etc - however, we treat this like a public company stock - we want long-term growth of Kava and try to make sure our whole community of Kava holders is aligned with that the best we can.

Q21:

Do you have any plans to attract non-crypto investors to Kava and how? What are the measures to increase awareness of kava in non-crypto space?

  • Answer: We are 100% focused on crypto, not the general market. We solve the problems of crypto traders and investors - not the average grandma who needs a payment solution. Kava is geared for decentralized leverage and hedging.

Q22:

Adoption is crucial for all projects and crypto companies, what strategy are you gonna use/follow or u are now following to get Kava adopted and used by many people all over the world?

Revenue is an important aspect for all projects in order to survive and keep the project/company up and running for long term, what are the ways that Kava generates profits/revenue and what is its revenue model?

  • Answer: We have already partnered with several large exchanges, long-term VCs, and large projects like Ripple and Cosmos. These are key ways for us to grow our community. As we build support for more assets, we plan to promote Kava's services to those new communities of traders.
  • Kava generates revenue as more people use the platform. As the platform is used, KAVA tokens are burned when users pay stability fees. This deflates the total supply of Kava and should in most cases give rise to the value of KAVA like a stock-buyback in the public markets.

Q23:

In order to be success in Loan project of Cryptocurrency, I think marketing is very important to make people using this service without any registration. What is main strategy for marketing?

  • Answer: Our main strategy is to build a great experience and offer products that are not available to communities with demand. Currently no DeFi products can serve BTC users for example. Centralized exchanges can, but nothing truly trustless. Kava's platform can finally give the vast audiences of BTC, BNB, and ATOM holders access to core DeFi services they cannot get on their own due to the smart contract limitations of those platforms.

Q24:

Currently, some project have policies for their ambassadors to create a contribution and attract recognition for the project! So the KAVA team plans to implement policies and incentives for KAVA ambassadors?

  • Answer: Yes, we will be creating a KAVA ambassador program and releasing that soon. Please follow our social media channels to learn about it in the coming weeks.

Q25:

Currently there are so many KAVA tokens sold on exchanges, why is this happening while KAVA is going to IEO on Binance? Are those KAVA codes fake or not?

  • Answer: For everyone's safety, please understand Kava tokens do not exist yet and they will only exist starting with the Binance IEO. Any other token listings or offerings of Kava are not supported by Kava Labs and I highly discourage you all from trying to get them there. It is most likely a big scam. Please only trust Binance for this.

Q26:

KAVA have two tokens, the first is called Kava - a governance and staking token; the second is called USDX - an algorithmically managed crypto-backed stable coin. What are the advantages of USDX compared to other stablecoins such as: USDT, USDC, TUSD, GUSD, ...?

  • Answer: USDX is one of the few stablecoins to be fully backed by crypto-assets. This means that we do not deal with fiat to back the value, and thus we don't have some of the issues when it comes to storing fiat funds with banks and custodians. This also makes our product fully digital and built for the future of crypto growth.

Q27:

As a CEO, does your background in Esports and Gaming industry help anything to your management and development of KAVA Labs?

  • Answer: Esports no. But having been a multi-time venture-backed foundeCEO and have gone through the start-up phase before has made creating and running a 2nd company easier. Right now Kava is still small, Fnatic had over 80 employees. It was at a larger scale. I would say developing software is much more than doing the hardware at fnaticgear.com

Q28:

Why did Kava choose to launch IEO on Binance and not other exchanges like: Kucoin, Houbi, Gate, ....?

  • Answer: Kava had a lot of interest from exchanges to partner with for IEO. We decided based on a lot of factors such as userbase, diverse exposure across multiple regions and countries, and an amazing team that provides so much insight into so many communities such as this one. Binance has been a tremendous partner and we also look forward to continuing our partnership far into the future.

Q29:

Currently if Search on coinmarketcap has 3 types of stablecoins bearing the USDX symbol (but these 3 stablecoins are no information). So, what will KAVA do to let users know that Kava's USDX is another stablecoin?

  • Answer: All these USDX have no volume or listings. We will be on Binance. I am not worried.

Q30:

In addition to the Token Allocation for Binance Launchpad, what is the Token Treasury in the Initial Circulating Supply?

  • Answer: This is controlled by Kava Labs, but with the big cash we have saved from fundraising, we see no reason why these tokens would be sold on the market. The treasury tokens are for use in grants, ecosystem growth initiatives, development, and other incentive programs to drive adoption of the platform.

Q31:

How you will compete with your competitors? Currently i don't see much but for future how you will maintain this consistency ? No doubt it is Great and Unique project, what is the main problem that #KAVA is currently facing?

  • Answer: Because our industry is just starting out, I don't like to think of them as our direct competitors. We are all working to grow the size of the pie rather than get a larger slice from a small pie. The one thing that we believe will allow us to stand apart is the community we are building. Being able to utilize our own community along with Cosmos and our other partners like Binance for the IEO, we have a strong footing to get a lot of early users onto our platform. Also, we are also focusing on growing Kava internationally particularly Asia. We hope to build our platform for an even larger userbase than just the west.

Q32:

How do you explain your project to a random person who has never heard of your project?

  • Answer: non-crypto = Kava is a lending platform for users of cryptocurrencies.
  • crypto = Kava is a cross-chain DeFi platform for loans and stablecoins backed by BTC, BNB, XRP, ATOM and other major cryptocurrencies.

Q33:

Will KAVA team have a plan on implementing DAO module on your platform since its efficiency on autonomy, decentralization and transparency?

  • Answer: All voting is already transparent on the Kava blockchain. We approved a number of proposals on our test net.

Q34:

how to use usdx token :only for your platform or you have plan to use usdx for payment ?

  • Answer: Payments is a nice use case, but demand for crypto payments is still small. We may choose to focus here later if demand for crypto payments increases. Currently it is quite small with the bulk of use remaining in trading and speculative use cases.

Q35:

Do you have plans to spread KAVA ecosystem across other continents. if yes, what are the strategies and how can I as a community member contribute to making it possible?

  • Answer: We are already across many continents - I don't think we are in antarctica yet. Africa might be light on nodes as well. I think as we grow on major exchanges like Binance, new node operators will get interested and help decentralize Kava further.

Q36:

Maker's CDP lending system is on top in this market and its Dominance is currently sitting on 64.90 % , how kava will compete will maker and compound?

  • Answer: adding assets like bitcoin which have more value and more users than ETH. It's a bigger market that Maker cannot compete with Kava in.

Q37:

Currently, the community is too concerned about the price. As prices rise, the community rejoice and grow, when falling, many people start throwing negatively. So what is KAVA's solution to getting people to focus on the project rather than the price of the token?

What is your plan to strengthen and grow the community to persuade more individuals to look at the product than the price?

  • Answer: We also share similar concerns as price and price direction is always a huge factor in the crypto industry. A lot of people of course are very short-term focused on flipping for bigger profits. One of the solutions, and what Kava has done, is to make sure that everything structured is for the long-term. So that makes sure that our investors and employees are all focused on long-term gains and growth. Locking vesting periods are part of that alignment. Another thing is that we at Kava are very transparent in our progress and development. We will be regularly posting updates within our own communities to allow our users and followers to keep up with everything we're up to. Please follow us or look at our github if you're interested!

Q38:

How did Kava get on Piexgo?

  • Answer: We did not work with Piexgo. We have not distributed tokens to any exchange other than Binance. I cannot speak to what is going on there, but I would be very wary of what is happening there.

Q39:

Why was the 1st round price so much lower than the current price

  • Answer: It is natural to worry that early investors got better pricing and could dump on the market. I can assure you that our investors are in this for the long-term. All private sale rounds signed 2 year contracts to run validators - and if they don't they forfeit their tokens. You can compare our release schedule to any other project. We have one of the most restricted circulating supply schedules of any project EVER and its because all our investors are commiting to the long-term success of the project and believe in Kava.
  • About the pricing itself - it is always a function of traction like for any start-up. When we made our public announcement about the project in June, we were only a 4 man team with just some github code. We could basically run a network with a single node, our own. Which is relatively worthless. I think our pricing of Kava at this time was justified. We were effectively a seed-stage company without a product or working network.
  • By July we made severe progress on the development side and the business side. We successful launched our first test net with the help of over 70 validator business partners around the world. We had a world-wide network of hundreds of people supporting us with people and resources at this point and the risk we would fail in launching a working product was much lower. At this point, the Kava project was valued at $25M. At this point, we had many VCs and investors asking for Kava tokens that we turned away. We only accepted validators that would help us launch the network. It was our one and only goal.
  • Fast forward to today, the IEO price simply reflects the traction and market demand for Kava. Our ecosystem is much larger than it was even a month ago. We have support from Ripple, Cosmos, and Binance amongst other large crypto projects. We have 100+ validators securing our network with very sophisticated high-availability set-ups. In addition, our ecosystem partners have built products for Kava - such as block explorers and others are working on native integrations to wallets and exchanges. Launchpad will be very big for us. Kava is a system designed to cater to crypto traders and investors and in a matter of days we distributed via Binance Launchpad and put in the hands of 130+ countries and tens of thousands of users overnight. It doesn't get more DeFi than that.

Q40:

What is the treasury used for?

  • Answer: Kava's treasury is for ecosystem growth activities.
  • Investors in financing rounds prior to the IEO have entered into long-term lock-up agreements in-line with their belief in Kava’s exciting long-term growth potential and to allow the projects token price to find stability. Following the IEO, the only tokens in circulation will be those sold through the IEO on Binance and the initial Treasury tokens released. No private sale investor tokens are in circulation until the initial release at the end of Q1 2020 and then gradually over the [36] months The initial Treasury tokens in circulation will be used for a mixture of ecosystem grants, the expenses associated with the IEO as well as initial market making requirements as is typical with a listing of this size. Kava remains well financed to execute our roadmap following the IEO and do not envisage any need for any material financings or token sales for the foreseeable future.

Q41:

Everyone have heard about the KAVA token, and read about it. But it would be great to hear your explanation about it. What is the Kava token, what is it's utility? :)

  • Answer: The Kava token plays many roles. KAVA is the native staking token of the Kava blockchain and is used for securing the network. KAVA is delegated to validators, basically professional node operators that run highly-available servers to secure the Kava blockchain. The top 100 validators by weight of staked KAVA earn block rewards that range from 3-20% APR based on the total amount staked in the network. These rewards are split between the validators and the KAVA holders.
  • When users of the platform repay their loans, they must a stability fee (a percentage of the loan) in KAVA tokens. These tokens are burned by the system, effectively deflating the total supply overtime as more users use the CDP system.
  • KAVA is also the primary token used in governance of the platform. KAVA token holders can vote on key system parameter changes and upgrades such as what assets to support, how much USDX in total can be loaned by the system, what the debt-to-collateral ratio needs to be, the stability fees, etc. KAVA holders have a very important responsibility to govern the system well.
  • Lastly, Kava functions as a "Lender of Last Resort" meaning if USDX ever gets undercollateralized because the underlying asset prices drop suddenly and the system manages it poorly, KAVA is inflated in these emergency situations and used to purchase USDX off the market until USDX reaches a state of being over collateralized again. KAVA holders have incentive to only support the good high quality assets so risk of the system is managed responsibly.

Q42:

No matter how perfect and technically thought-out a DeFi protocol is, it cannot be completely protected from any unplanned situations (such as extreme market fluctuations, some legal issues, etc.)

Ecosystem members, in particular the validators on whom KAVA relies on fundamental decision-making rights, should be prepared in advance for any "critical" scenario. Considering that, unlike the same single-collateral MakerDAO, KAVA will be a multi-collateral CDP system, this point is probably even more relevant here.

In this regard, please answer the following question: Does KAVA have a clear risk management model or strategy and how decentralized is / will it be?

  • Answer: Simialar to other CDP systems and MakerDAO we do have a system freeze function where in cases of extreme issues, we can stop the auction mechanisms and return all collateral.

Q43:

Did you know that "Kava" is translated into Ukrainian like "Coffee"? I personally do love drinking coffee. I plunge into the fantasy world. Why did you name your project "Kava" What is the story behind it? What idea / fantasy did your project originate from, which inspired you to create it?

  • Answer: Kava is coffee to you.
  • Kava is Hippopotamus to Japanese.
  • Cava is a region in Spain
  • Kava is also a root that is used in tea which makes your mouth numb.
  • Kava is also crow in Hindi.
  • Kava last but not least is a DeFi platform launching on Binance :)
  • We liked the sound of Kava it was as simple as that. It doesn't have much meaning in the USA where I am from. But it's short sweet and when we were just starting, Kava.io was available for a reasonable price

Q44:

What incentives does a lender get if a person chooses to pay with KAVA? Is there a discount on interest rates on the loan amount if you pay with KAVA? Do I have to pass the KYC procedure to apply for a small loan?

  • Answer: There is no KYC for Kava. Its an open blockchain software platform where anyone with a computer can connect to it and use it.

Q45:

Let's say, I decided to bond my cryptocurrency and got USDX stable coins. For now, it`s an unknown stable coin (let's be honest). Do you plan to add USDX to other famous exchanges? Also, you have spoken about the USDX staking and that the percentage would be higher than for other stable coins. Please be so kind to tell us what is the average annual interest rate and what are the conditions of staking?

  • Answer: Yes we have several large exchanges willing to support USDX from the start. Binance/Binance-DEX is one you should all know ;)
  • The average annual rates for USDX will depend on market conditions. The rate is actually provided by the CDP fees users pay. The system reallocates a portion of those fees to USDX users. In times when USDX use needs to grow, the rates will be higher to incentivize use. When demand is strong, we can reduce the rates.

Q46:

Why should i use and choose Kava's loan if i can use the similar margin trade on Binance?

  • Answer: If margin is available to you and you trust the exchange then you should do whatever is cheaper. For a US citizen and others, margin is often not available and if it is, only for a few asset types as collateral. Kava aims to address this and offer this to everyone.

Q47:

The IEO price is $ 0.46 while the price of the first private sale is $ 0.075. Don't you think that such price gap can negatively affect the liquidity of the token and take away the desire to buy a token on the exchange?

  • Answer: It is natural to worry that early investors got better pricing and could dump on the market. I can assure you that our investors are in this for the long-term. All private sale rounds signed 2 year contracts to run validators - and if they don't they forfeit their tokens. You can compare our release schedule to any other project. We have one of the most restricted circulating supply schedules of any project EVER and its because all our investors are commiting to the long-term success of the project and believe in Kava.
  • About the pricing itself - it is always a function of traction like for any start-up. When we made our public announcement about the project in June, we were only a 4 man team with just some github code. We could basically run a network with a single node, our own. Which is relatively worthless. I think our pricing of Kava at this time was justified. We were effectively a seed-stage company without a product or working network.
  • By July we made severe progress on the development side and the business side. We successful launched our first test net with the help of over 70 validator business partners around the world. We had a world-wide network of hundreds of people supporting us with people and resources at this point and the risk we would fail in launching a working product was much lower. At this point, the Kava project was valued at $25M. At this point, we had many VCs and investors asking for Kava tokens that we turned away. We only accepted validators that would help us launch the network. It was our one and only goal.
  • Fast forward to today, the IEO price simply reflects the traction and market demand for Kava. Our ecosystem is much larger than it was even a month ago. We have support from Ripple, Cosmos, and Binance amongst other large crypto projects. We have 100+ validators securing our network with very sophisticated high-availability set-ups. In addition, our ecosystem partners have built products for Kava - such as block explorers and others are working on native integrations to wallets and exchanges. Launchpad will be very big for us. Kava is a system designed to cater to crypto traders and investors and in a matter of days we distributed via Binance Launchpad and put in the hands of 130+ countries and tens of thousands of users overnight. It doesn't get more DeFi than that.
  • TLDR - I think KAVA is undervalued and the liquid supply of tokens is primarily from the IEO so its a safer bet than other IEOs. If the price drops, it will be from the overall market conditions or fellow IEO users not due private sale investors or team sell-offs.

Q48:

Can you introduce some information abouts KAVA Deflationary Fee Structure? With the burning mechanism, does it mean KAVA will never reach its max supply?

  • Answer: When loans are repaid, users pay a fee in Kava. This is burned. However, Kava does not have a max supply. It has a starting supply of 100M. It inflates for block rewards 3-20% APR AND it inflates when the system is at risk of under collateralization. At this time, more Kava is minted and used to purchase USDX off the market until it reaches full collateralization again.
  • TLDR: If things go well, and governance is good, Kava deflates and hopefully appreciates in value. If things go wrong, Kava holders get inflated.

Q49:

In your opinion what are advantage of decentralized finance over centralized?

  • Answer: One of the main advantages is not needing to pay the costs of regulation and compliance. Open financial software that is usable by anyone removes middle men fees and reduces the barrier for new entrants to enter and make new products. Also DeFI has an edge in terms of onboarding - to get a bank account or an exchange account you need to do lots of KYC and give private info. That takes time and is troublesome. With DeFi you just load up your funds and transact. Very fast user flows.

Q50:

Plan, KAVA how to raise capital? Kava is being supported by more than 100 business entities around the world, including major cryptocurrency investment funds like Ripple and Cosmos, so what did kava do to convince investors to join the project?

  • Answer: We have been doing crypto research and development for years. Ripple and Cosmos were partners before we even started this blockchain with Kava Labs. When we announced Kava the DeFi platform they knew us already to do good work and they liked the idea so they support us.
submitted by Kava_Mod to KavaUSDX [link] [comments]

License to Kill – Bond(s) explained

The below is the text from my latest blog post about bonds, if you want to see the original with pretty pictures, charts, graphs etc then click on this link.
Ok, the title is an obvious dad joke, but as it happens it still fits in with my naming convention for posts so happy days! On to more serious stuff.
The most common proposed asset allocation for people pursuing FIRE seems to involve having absolutely as much invested in equities (or to a lesser extent property) as possible, and reducing every other asset class to as little as possible. Which is certainly one way of doing things, and given the great performance of shares and property over the last 20 years or more there is an argument to be made for doing things this way.
It’s certainly not the only way of doing things though, and I will be trying to show why there is a case to be made for investing some money in other asset classes, in particular Fixed Income aka Bonds.
So what are bonds?
Bonds are a type of debt that is issued by governments, semi-government organisations, and corporations, so basically you’re lending them money. In Australia we also have what are called hybrid securities, but they’ve got some big enough differences that I’ll talk about them in a future post (probably).
Bonds are also one of those fun areas where there is an exception to every rule, so although what I’ve written below is broadly accurate there is always going to be some type of bond or a specific issue that breaks one of the rules.
So please don’t be an internet hero and “well ackshually” me about premium redemption/issue bonds, soft calls, hard calls, investor puts, floaters, PIK notes and all the rest of it because broadly speaking it isn’t going to make much difference for the purposes of explaining bonds. Basically play nice readers!
Talk numbers to me…
Bonds are all about math. As I’m sure regular readers of this blog can imagine this makes me very happy, and probably explains in part why I spent a large part of my career working in an area where understanding bonds was crucial, although to make things more interesting we added on a bunch of other stuff like equity options, credit derivatives, FX etc.
The main numbers to think about are the price you paid for the bond, the coupon on the bond, the yield on the bond, the time to maturity, and the maturity value of the bond. From those main numbers we also derive a bunch of other numbers I’ll talk about later.
Bonds are normally issued at a price of 100, with a fixed coupon (interest payment based on the maturity value of the bond) and a fixed maturity value at a known maturity date. So that’s 4 of the numbers covered already, happy days!
A lot of the time though you’re not going to be buying that bond when it is issued, you’ve buying it when it’s already trading in which case chances are pretty good you didn’t pay 100 for the bond. Buying it along the way doesn’t affect the coupon or the redemption amount at maturity or when it matures.
What it does affect though is the yield. There are a bunch of different yield measures but I’m going to go with yield to maturity, ie what yield (return) will you get if you hold the bond to maturity.
It’s not a perfect analogy, but one way to think about bonds is that they’re like a term deposit where the amount that you can buy it for moves around. If you buy a bond for $10,000 that is going to mature in a year and it has a 2% coupon and redeems for $10,200 (redemption price plus coupon payment), then your yield (2%) is the same as your coupon (2%).
But if interest rates have changed and so the price of the bond has changed and you buy that bond for $9,900 or $10,100, then your yield will be different from your coupon, either 3% or 1% respectively. Hopefully that makes sense? BTW I’ve rounded the numbers here to try and keep it nice and simple.
Most bonds pay interest on a semi annual basis (I used an annual payment in the example above to make things easier) so to figure out how much interest you get when it gets paid it’ll be the coupon divided by two.
Hopefully all of that makes sense, if not let me know in the comments.
Issuers of Bonds
As I said above the main issuers of bonds are governments, semi government organisations, and corporations.
Debt issued by governments is generally the safest type, because so long as they control the printing press then they can always print more money to pay you back. The Eurozone is a bit of an exception to this (understatement of the year) but in most of the other major sovereign bond markets like the US, Australian, the UK etc it’s true.
Emerging markets are a bit different because they often issue debt in USD, which means that if things go pear shaped then they can’t just print more money to pay off bondholders.
There can also be issues with getting your money back from sovereigns if they have too much debt, such as when they either don’t control the printing press (Greece) or the bond is issued in a different currency (Argentina) but for the most part if you lend money to a developed country in their own currency then you can pretty reliably count on getting your money back.
There are also bonds issued by semi government organisations like the World Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development etc, these are slightly less safe for the most part but you’re still not taking on much risk of not getting your money back.
Debt issued by corporations is riskier, partly because businesses obviously can’t just print more money to pay you back, and because corporations can and do go bust. Sure it doesn’t seem likely that Telstra or Woolworths or the big banks are going to blow up any time soon, but there are plenty of other bond issuers out there with much more fragile finances.
As you would expect the more risk you are taking on the more return you want in order to be compensation for doing so. This is because unlike a term deposit the value of your capital isn’t protected. If you put $10,000 into a term deposit for a year with an interest rate of 2%, then you know that in a year’s time you will get back that $10,000 plus $200 in interest.
If for some reason the bank you invested that money through goes bust, the government will make you whole (up to the value of $250,000 per entity per approved deposit institution.
If you invest in a corporate bond and the company goes bust, well you’re probably not going to get all or maybe any of your money back. The good news is that you’re more likely to get money back than equity holders, but if the debts of the company are a lot more than the assets then you’re going to be in trouble.
There’s a clear framework for what happens if a company goes bust and who gets paid first and in how much etc, the short version of this is that equity holders are absolutely last in line but depending on what type of bonds you own you may not be a meaningful better position either.
And unlike a stock, when you own a bond you don’t own a piece of the issuer of the bond, you just own part of their devt. So if the company does great and starts making a fortune, you as a bondholder don’t get paid any more than what the terms of the bond state. Basically you can get a fair chunk of the downside and none of the upside beyond the terms of the bond. On the plus side this doesn’t happen particularly often, most of the time you’ll get what you were promised
Bond ratings
Now obviously some companies are more secure and stable than others. If you take a bond from the biggest company in the ASX200 which is CBA, then it’s more likely to fulfil the terms of the bond than whatever the 200th company is. That’s not to say the 200th company won’t, just that there is more risk. The actual degree of this risk is quantified in a couple of different ways.
First of all there are ratings agencies out there who will assign a rating from anywhere to super safe (AAA) to D (in default) with a bunch of graduations in between. Anything rated from AAA to BBB- is what is called Investment Grade (IG), everything below that is called High Yield (HY) or less politely Junk.
Just because a bond is IG doesn’t guarantee it will pay off, likewise something which is HY isn’t guaranteed or even likely to fail. For the most part though the different ratings given tend to play out that way in the real world, with far less defaults for bonds rated AAA vs bonds rated BB for example.
The big three ratings agencies are Standard & Poors (S&P), Moodys, and Fitch, and between them they’ll rate most of the bonds and/or issuers. They tend to be fairly backward looking in my opinion, and they were hugely and obviously wrong on rating mortgage backed securities back in the GFC. Still, they will generally give you a reasonable idea of the creditworthiness of the bond issuer.
Because bonds are also traded in the marketplace you can take the yield offered on a bond with a particular maturity, compare it to an equivalent government bond, and using some fun math (yeah baby!) back out a credit spread which that bond trades over treasuries (or swaps but I’m not going to get into that). The higher the spread, the higher the perceived risk of the bond, and vice versa of course.
Are bonds safe?
Well it kinda depends on what you mean by safe. If you mean are the bonds likely to deliver what the issuer of the bonds promised, then generally yes. As I said with government and semi government bonds you will almost certainly get all your coupons and the maturity value of the bonds delivered on time. Yeah, there are some exceptions to this but you’re unlikely to run into trouble with Australia, the US, the UK, the more economically sensible members of the Eurozone etc.
Similarly with corporates the vaast majority of the time you will get your money back on investment grade bonds, and it’s pretty rare to not get your money back on high yield bonds as well. That’s not to say it doesn’t happen, but it doesn’t happen much.
If you mean am I going to get back what I put into the bond, well no they’re not necessarily safe, particularly if you sell before maturity. Remember when I said bonds are kinda like term deposits that can trade? Well when they trade those prices move around, and they can move around a lot!
Why do bond prices move?
There are a bunch of reasons why bond prices move around, the main ones are changes in the interest rate environment, changes in economic conditions, and changes specific to the issuer of the bond.
We’ll talk about interest rates first. Bond prices have an inverse relationship with bond yields, which is a fancy way of saying if interest rates (yields) go down then bond prices go up.
How much do they go up? Well that depends on the magnitude of the change in rates, and a bunch of factors involving the bond. Basically the longer till maturity on the bond, and the lower the coupon on the bond, the more sensitive it will be to changes in interest rates. This is measured using modified duration and convexity.
Modified duration takes into account the timing of the cashflows of the bond (so coupons and maturity) and gives you a number which is typically a little less than that number of years to maturity, the higher the coupon the more it decreases the modified duration. If you multiply that modified duration by the change in interest rates in percentage terms, it will tell you how much the bond price will move by (in theory at least).
So if you have a modified duration of say 7.117, then for every 1 percent move in interest rates the bond price will change by 7.117 points. So if your bond price was previously 100 and rates moved down by 1%, then your bond should now be worth 107.117. Happy days! Conversely if rates moved up, well your bond is now worth 92.883. Not so happy days.
I’ve used the [ASX bond calculator](http://%20https//www.asx.com.au/asx/research/bondCalculator.do) to give a couple of examples using the current Aussie 10 year bond. You can hopefully see below that by changing the yield on the bond from 1.5% to 1% the market price has gone from 116.87 to 121.83, roughly a 4.25% change in price for a 0.5% change in rates, so presumably the modified duration on the bond is about 8.5.
To make things slightly more complex, that relationship isn’t fixed due to something called convexity. Instead of being a linear relationship, it’s actually a changing one (a curve rather than a line). Basically the more bonds prices move away from where they were issued the more that relationship will change.
Then there are things like GDP numbers, employment numbers, consumer sentiment surveys, PMI surverys, and all sorts of other economic news which will potentially move bond yields around, generally pretty slightly but it really depends on how important that economic number is and how much of a change from expectations it is.
On top of that for corporations changes in their own situations will have an effect on what their credit rating/spread is which will affect prices as well. If a company goes from being loss making to suddenly making a profit, then that’s going to be good for their credit and the bond price is likely to go up. Bad news like a profit warning will potentially mean a higher credit spread and lower price for the bond.
There is also general investor appetite for risk, so if investors are happy to take on more risk in their asset allocation (risk on) then they will likely sell off lower risk assets like bonds and buy higher risk assets like equities and to a lesser extent property. If things change and they want to go risk off, then the reverse happens and money tends to come out of equities and into bonds.
What happens to bonds if the stock market crashes or we have another GFC?
A stock market crash is actually one of the more compelling reasons to invest in bonds. This is because when stock markets crash investors tend to put their money into asset classes where they feel a lot safer ie, bonds. The rationale is that getting your money back is now hugely important, and even more important is not losing all your money as you will in those horrible equities which you knew you should never have invested in but that horrible financial adviser talked you into.
People. Are. Not. Rational. People panic. People sell assets which are going down in value even though they know they should be holding on for the long term. This applies not just to retail investors, but also to professionals who should know better.
In the GFC I spent plenty of time talking to institutional investors with a long term time horizon (ie 5 or 10 years etc) who suddenly decided they had to get out because of bad one month performance. People will bail out if the proverbial is hitting the fan. I wrote a bit about my experiences with the GFC here, and believe me there are a lot of people who are not going to be as cool calm and collected as they think they will be.
It’s very very very very (extra very for emphasis) important to note here that at this point in time investors will not be thinking that all bonds are much the same. When they are looking for somewhere to put their money that they now have after panic selling out of equities, they will park it in the safest place they can find, ie government bonds (aka treasuries). This will cause the price of those bonds to rise because of supply and demand.
If they still want to take on some amount of risk then they might put some into investment grade bonds, again this will push the price up a bit. They will almost certainly not put money into high yield bonds, because those are risky and in a crisis will behave pretty similarly to equities, ie they will fall in value. If anything they will more than likely try to pull money out of HY bonds, pushing the price down.
This excellent post really shows this in the below graph which shows the average performance of different types of bonds for a 10% or greater fall in the stock market (all of this is for the US but the same principle applies to Australia).
It doesn’t work in every case, as shown below (same source), but in almost all cases of a big crash in equities, treasury and to a lesser extent IG bonds gave you a big positive return to help out. HY, not so much and in some cases actually gave you a worse performance than equities themselves.
Please believe me when I say it is a huge help psychologically to have some of your investments going up when the others are going down, which to me at least is a great reason to have some money invested in bonds.
You’ve convinced me, how much should I have in bonds?
Ok so I’m probably being slightly optimistic here given the number of posts I see on reddit about how VDHG would be so much better if Vanguard got rid of that terrible 10% that’s invested in bonds and put it all in equities instead.
It would be nice to think though that some people are now realising that come the next crash they too might not behave entirely rationally, and it sure would be nice to own some assets that are going to zig when the stock market zags, so to speak.
On the off chance that I have actually convinced people, well it really comes down to your particular risk profile. This is going to be hard to believe for some people, but in the US the default portfolio for most investors is 60% stocks and 40% bonds.
Looking at Oz , the default balanced investment option for most super funds over here are supposed to have something like a 70:30 split between growth assets (shares and property) and defensive assets (bonds and cash) although the reality is a long long way from that if you actually look into how they invest (that’s a discussion for another time though). So that maybe provides a useful starting point.
I know that the average FIRE portfolio that gets talked about particularly from younger bloggers (who have likely never experienced a sustained down market) is pretty much 100% equities and property, maybe even leveraged up. Which is fine if you can hold on through the downturns, but not everyone can do this because it is extremely difficult to do psychologically. I wish them all the best of luck, but I am pretty sure that at least some of them will decide that it’s all too much and sell whenever we have the next crash.
There are exceptions to the rule though. One of my favourite bloggers, and someone who I know thinks deeply about this sort of stuff, is the FI Explorer who has about 15% in bonds and 15% in defensive alternatives (gold and bitcoin) as per his latest portfolio update.
Whilst I don’t like Bitcoin myself, or gold for that matter, he writes a good explanation about why he holds both here. I still don’t like either asset myself, but I recognise that I am not infallible, I could well be wrong about this, and certainly historically they have worked well as hedges.
In any case the more important point here is that there is basically a 30% allocation to what would be regarded as defensive type assets. This is actually a bit over his actual target of 25% in defensive assets, but he probably sleeps just fine at night.
I’m a little more aggressive in only having about 21% of my assets (excluding PPoR) in cash and bonds, but it’s not a huge difference. Both of us have been invested through stock market crashes and hopefully have come to realise that we are not the hyper rational investors that economists believe we are, and therefore it’s best to have a bit invested in stuff that will go up or at least hold it’s value when everything else is crashing.
How do I buy bonds?
You can buy bonds individually, but you tend to need to have a fair amount of money to do so and you can run into a lot of problems with liquidity, big bid/ask spreads etc, it’s hard to build up a diversified portfolio etc.
I buy bonds the same way I buy stocks, ie via an ETF. Most of the major ETF providers have some variety of index ETFs tracking Treasury only or Treasury plus Investment Grade bonds, or you can buy HY stuff if you want. Personally I just use one ETF which has about 75% in treasuries and the rest in IG. There are also some actively managed bond funds out there, either as ETFs or managed funds.
For the reasons I outlined above about bonds being a psychological safe harbour I personally would (and do) only invest in bonds which are likely to up in a crisis, but different strokes for different folks applies as always.
Any more questions?
I’ve only really scratched the surface here of talking about bonds, but at the same time I feel like it’s an overwhelming amount of information. If you have more questions then as always I’m happy to answer them in the comments!
Do you invest in bonds? If you enjoyed this post and would like to read more like it then please subscribe!
submitted by AussieHIFIRE to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

Why we won't have a long term bear market, and how to systematically pick your future investments in crypto

With so much uncertainty right now it would be a good time to take some time to go over what happened recently and how to invest moving foward. We've seen a peak bubble at around 850 billion total market cap in the first week of January, consolidated down to $750 billion and have now just experienced a 40% correction.

What's happening now and how bad will it get?

First of all you should realize that there is a January Dip that happens every year, when we see a roughly 20-30% decline around mid January. This year its been much more severe though for several additional factors that have compounded on top.
Different theories exist on why this happens (its actually the mirror opposite of the "January Effect" that happens in the US stock market), but the two major theories are:
1) Asian markets pull into fiat because of Asian New Year spending needs
2) People in the US sell in January to defer their capital gains tax liability an extra year
While this cyclic event has lead to a healthy correction in the last few years, this year we got these new factors making more fear as well:
So in essence we got a storm of scary news along with the usual cyclic downturn. Currently I don't see this as being a systematic crash like Mt.Gox was that would lead to a long term bear market because the fundamental ecosystem is still intact, and I suspect that after about a month we should consolidate around a new low. All the exchanges are still operational and liquid, and there is no breakdown in trust nor uncertainty whether you'll be able to cash out. What range the market trades in will all depend how Bitcoin does, right now we've already broken below 10K but I'm seeing a lot of support at around $8000, which is roughly where the long term MA curve settles. We don't know how bad it will get or what the future will bring, but as of right now we shouldn't be in a bear market yet.
What should you do if you recently entered the market?
If you did buy in the last few months at or near ATH, the very worst thing you can do now is sell in panic and lose your principal. You shouldn't have more money in crypto than you can afford to lose, so it shouldn't be a problem to wait. You have to realize that 30% corrections in crypto are relatively common, just last fall we had a 40% flash correction over more China fears. Unless there is a systematic breakdown like we had during Mt.Gox, the market always recovers.
The other worst thing you can do is unload into Tether as your safety net. If there is one thing that could actually cause a long term destruction of trust within the cryptocurrency investment ecosystem, its Tether having a run up on their liabilities and not having enough reserve to cover the leverage. It would not only bring down exchanges but lead to years of litigation and endless media headlines that will scare off everybody from putting fiat in. I don't know when the next Mt.Gox meltdown will occur but I can almost guarantee it will involve Tether. So stay away from it.
What should long term investors do?
For long term holders a good strategy to follow each year is to capture profit each December and swallow the capital gains taxation liability, park a reserve of fiat at Gemini (whose US dollar deposits are FDIC-insured) and simply wait till around late January to early February to re-enter the market at a discount and hold all year until next December. You can keep a small amount in core coins in order to trade around various Q1 opportunities you anticipate. Others may choose to simply do nothing and just keep holding throughout January which is also a perfectly fine strategy. The cyclical correction usually stabilizes toward late January and early February, then we see a rise in March and generally are recovered by end of April. Obviously this decision whether to sell in December to profit on the dip and pay tax liability or to just hold will depend on your individual tax situation. Do your own math sometime in November and follow suit.
Essentially revaluate your positions and trim your position sizes if you don't feel comfortable with the losses.

How to construct your portfolio going forward

Rather than seeing the correction as a disaster see it as a time to start fresh. If you have been FOMO-ing into bad cryptos and losing money now is a time to start a systematic long term approach to investing rather than gambling.
Follow a methodology for evaluating each cryptocurrency
Memes and lambo dreams are fun and all, but I know many of you are investing thousands of dollars into crypto, so its worth it to put some organized thought into it as well. I can't stress enough how important it is to try and logically contruct your investment decisions. If you follow a set methodology, a checklist and template you will be able to do relative comparisons between cryptocurrencies, to force yourself to consider the negatives and alternative scenarios and also sleep comfortably knowing you have a sound basis for your investment decisions (even if they turn out to be wrong).
There is no ideal or "correct" methodology but I can outline mine:
1) Initial information gathering and filtering
Once I identify something that looks like a good potential investment, I first go to the CoinMarketCap page for that symbol and look at the website and blockchain explorer.
  • Critically evaluate the website. This is the first pass of the bullshit detector and you can tell from a lot from just the website whether its a scam. If it uses terms like "Web 4.0" or other nonsensical buzzwords, if its unprofessional and has anonymous teams, stay away. Always look for a roadmap, compare to what was actually delivered so far. Always check the team, try to find them on LinkedIn and what they did in the past.
  • Read the whitepaper or business development plan. You should fully understand how this crypto functions and how its trying to create value. If there is no use case or if the use case does not require or benefit from a blockchain, move on. Look for red flags like massive portions of the float being assigned to the founders of the coin, vague definition of who would use the coin, anonymous teams, promises of large payouts...etc
  • Check the blockchain explorer. How is the token distribution across accounts? Are the big accounts holding or selling? Which account is likely the foundation account, which is the founders account?
  • Read the subreddit and blogs for the cryptocurrency and also evaluate the community. Try to figure out exactly what the potential use cases are and look for sceptical takes. Look at the Github repos, does it look empty or is there plenty of activity?
2) Fill out an Investment Checklist
I have a checklist of questions that I find important and as I'm researching a crypto I save little snippets in Evernote of things that are relevant to answering those questions:
  • What is the problem or transactional inefficiency the coin is trying to solve?
  • What is the Dev Team like? What is their track record? How are they funded, organized?
  • Who is their competition and how big is the market they're targeting? What is the roadmap they created?
  • What current product exists?
  • How does the token/coin actually derive value for the holder? Is there a staking mechanism or is it transactional?
  • What are the weaknesses or problems with this crypto?
3) Create some sort of consistent valuation model/framework, even if its simple
I have a background in finance so I like to do Excel modeling. For those who are interested in that, this article is a great start and also Chris Burniske has a great blog about using Quantity Theory of Money to build an equivalent of a DCF analysis for crypto.
Here is an Excel file example of OMG done using his model. You can download this and play around with it yourself, see how the formulas link and understand the logic.
Once you have a model set up the way you like in Excel you can simply alter it to account for various float oustanding schedule and market items that are unique to your crypto, and then just start plugging in different assumptions. Think about what is the true derivation of value for the coin, is it a "dividend" coin that you stake within a digital economy and collect fees or is it a currency? Use a realistic monetary velocity (around 5-10 for currency and around 1-2 for staking) and for the discount rate use at least 3x the long term return of a diversified equity fund.
The benefit is that this forces you to think about what actually makes this coin valuable to an actual user within the digital economy its participating in and force you to think about the assumptions you are making about the future. Do your assumptions make sense? What would the assumptions have to be to justify its current price? You can create different scenarios in a matrix (optimistic vs. pessimistic) based on different assumptions for risk (discount rate) and implementation (adoption rates).
If you don't understand the above thats perfectly fine, you don't need to get into full modeling or have a financial background. Even a simple model that just tries to derive a valuation through relative terms will put you above most crypto investors. Some simple valuation methods that anyone can do
  • Metcalfe's Law which states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2). So you can compare various currencies based on their market cap and square of active users or traffic.
  • Another easy one is simply looking at the total market for the industry that the coin is supposedly targeting and comparing it to the market cap of the coin. Think of the market cap not only with circulating supply like its shown on CMC but including total supply. For example the total supply for Dentacoin is 1,841,395,638,392, and when multiplied by its price in early January we get a market cap that is actually higher than the entire industry it aims to disrupt: Dentistry.
  • If its meant to be just used as just a currency: Take a look at the circulating supply and look at the amount that is in cold storage or set to be released/burned. Most cryptos are deflationary so think about how the float schedule will change over time and how this will affect price.
Once you have a model you like set up, you can compare cryptos against each other and most importantly it will require that you build a mental framework within your own mind on why somebody would want to own this coin other than to sell it to another greater fool for a higher price. Modeling out a valuation will lead you to think long term and think about the inherent value, rather than price action.
Once you go through this 3-step methodology, you'll have a pretty good confidence level for making your decision and can comfortably sit back and not panic if some temporary short term condition leads to a price decrease. This is how "smart money" does it.
Think about your portfolio allocation
You should think first in broad terms how you allocate between "safe" and "speculative" cryptos.
For new investors its best to keep a substantial portion in what would be considered largecap safe cryptos, primarily BTC, ETH, LTC. I personally consider XMR to be safe as well. A good starting point is to have between 50-70% of your portfolio in these safe cryptocurrencies. As you become more confident and informed you can move your allocation into speculative small caps.
You should also think in terms of segments and how much of your total portfolio is in each segment:
  • Core holdings - BTC, Ethereum, LTC...etc
  • Platform segment - Ethereum, NEO, Ark...etc
  • Privacy segment - Monero, Zcash, PivX..etc
  • Finance/Bank settlement segment - Ripple, Stellar...etc
  • Enterprise Blockchain solutions segment -VeChain, Walton, WABI...etc
  • Promising/Innovative Tech segment - Raiblocks, IOTA, Cardano...etc
You should also think about where we are in the cycle, as now given so much uncertaintly its probably best to stay heavily in core holdings and pick up a few coins within a segment you understand well. If you don't understand how enterprise solutions work or how the value chain is built through corporations, don't invest in the enteprise blockchain solutions segment. If you are a technie who loves the technology behind Cardano or IOTA, invest in that segment.
Think of your "circle of competence"
This is actually a term Buffet came up with, it refers to your body of knowledge that allows you to evaluate an investment. Think about what you know best and consider investing in those type of coins. If you don't know anything about how supply chains functions, how can you competently judge whether VeChain or WaltonChain will achieve adoption?
This where your portfolio allocation also comes into play. You should diversify but really shouldn't be in much more than around 12 cryptos, because you simply don't have enough competency to accurately access the risk across every segment and for every type of crypto you come across. If you had over 20 different cryptos in your portfolio you should probably think about consolidating to a few sectors you understand well.
Continually educate yourself about the technology and markets
If you aren't already doing it: Read a bit each day about cryptocurrencies. There are decent Youtubers that talk about the market side of crypto, just avoid those that hype specific coins and look for more sceptical ones like CryptoInvestor. If you don't understand how the technology works and what the benefits of a blockchain are or how POS/POW works or what a DAG is or how mining actually works, learn first. If you don't care about the technology or find reading about it tedious, you shouldn't invest in this space at all.

Summing it up

I predicted a few days ago that we would have a major correction in 2018 specifically in the altcoins that saw massive gains in Decemebeearly January, and it seems we've already had a pretty big one. I don't think we'll have a complete meltdown like some are predicting, but some more pain may be incoming.
Basically take this time to think about how you can improve your investment style and strategy. Make a commitment to value things rather than chasing FOMO, and take your time to make a decision. Long term investment will grant you much more returns as will a systematic approach.
Take care and have fun investing :)
Edit March 2018: Lol looking back I'm regretting starting the title with "Why we won't have a long term bear market" now, I was more karma whoring with that catchy title than anything. We recovered up to 11K from this post, but then crashed again hard later in February-March because of a slew of reasons from Tether subpeona to unforseen regulatory issues.
submitted by arsonbunny to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Tips and Tricks for New and Old PMC's alike

Hey guys recently I've been seeing a bunch of new players coming into the community asking questions for some tips on how to get better or tricks to give some QOL improvements so I've decided to make a generalized list to help them out, this list isn't just for new players, hopefully for the more experienced PMC's you can learn something as well. Each category will be separated as to lessen what you might want to read and not completely overwhelm new players, the start of each section will focus on more beginner friendly tips while the end of some contain more obscure tips. Feel free to comment any tips or tricks I may have missed/messed up or forgot about down below to help the community out.

Map Knowledge and Movement:
Gear and Ammo:
Inventory management:
Quick Cash:
Links:

Note: All of this information is valid in patch .11

Thank you all for reading this,if i referred to you/your content in this post or if you have any critiques/questions or concerns please feel free to leave a comment down below or dm me, I'll try to keep this as up to date as i can. Thank you all so much for reading through this, hope this helps out some of you cheeki's out.
submitted by TheViperTooth to EscapefromTarkov [link] [comments]

I Tried Day Trading Bitcoin for a Week  Beginner Crypto ... Is Bitcoin the Future of Money? Peter Schiff vs. Erik ... The Stock Market is EASY MONEY  DO THIS NOW - YouTube PayPal to Perfect Money - YouTube How Much Money Should I Invest - Stock Market Dividends ...

A perfect example of this can be found in the fact that a large number of online casinos still do not allow American players due to US online gambling and money laws. However, with a cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin, this can be circumnavigated. Liquidity. Perhaps the most important difference between Bitcoin and stock trading is level of liquidity, especially considering the nature of trading ... Individuals and businesses can now exchange Perfect Money for Bitcoin or buy Bitcoin using Perfect Money with confidence. The Exchange.Blue platform provides a secure and efficient marketplace where users can instantly convert their Perfect Money currency in USD to Bitcoin. The company has a 24/7 live support to assist customers in every step of the process, or in case of any question or concern. Bitcoin has been one destination for investor’s money. Why? Bitcoin is considered a store of value. This means it is intended to maintain its price without depreciating over time. Year to date (YTD), Bitcoin has gained over 56 per cent on the BTC Markets exchange. Compare this with the S&P ASX 200. Australia’s premier market index has lost 8 per cent of its value YTD. Currency, equities ... We can get even more interesting insights from Bitcoin’s NVT ratio (Network Value to Transactions), which is similar to the PE ratio used in the stock markets. The NVT ratio is measured by dividing the Network Value (market cap) by the daily or weekly USD volume transmitted via Bitcoin’s blockchain. As per ByteTree data, the current NVT is 9 weeks. This is because the current TV$ figure is ... I'm not convinced Bitcoin is a viable alternative to stock market investing. The post Stocks and shares vs crypto! Bitcoin’s appeal in the market crash appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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I Tried Day Trading Bitcoin for a Week Beginner Crypto ...

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. Share your videos with friends, family, and the world TAGS stock market,stock market vs cryptocurrency,stock market crash 2019,stock market prediction 2019,cryptocurrency,stock market vs bitcoin,bitcoin price prediction 2019,crypto market ... Au cours des quatre dernières années, StockSons, est passée du statut de startup à société mondiale à qui on fait confiance pour gérer plus d'actifs que l'on... Let's discuss how NOT to invest, some of the biggest mistakes people are making today, and how to make money in this market - Enjoy! Add me on Instagram: GPS...

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